04:29 PM EST, 01/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange continued a winning streak on Thursday, rising for an eight session, this time on signs that "base case conditions are robust for Canadian consumption" even in the face of a pending trade war with the United States.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 122.58 points to 25,434.08, leaving it just 257 points shy of the Dec.6 record high. Industrials, up 1.12%, and Utilities, up 1.05%, were leading gainers, with Battery Metals, down 2.4%, leading decliners.

The rise comes even after Donald Trump renewed threats to impose stiff tariffs on Canadian imports. Speaking virtually to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the U.S. president said "We're going to be demanding respect from other nations ... Canada has been very tough to deal with over the years. We don't need them to make our cars, and they make a lot of them. We don't need their lumber because we have our own forests," he continued. "We don't need their oil and gas, we have more than anybody."

Canada supplies about 20% of the United States daily oil consumption of 20.5-million barrels per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration..

Statistics Canada on Thursday reported Canada's November retail sales were unchanged from the prior month. Rosenberg Research noted the consensus was looking for a +0.2% month over month uptick and instead, "all we got was a big fat zero." In fact, the research said, it was far worse than that because ex-auto sales reversed -0.7%, a surprise with the consensus estimate expecting a rise 0.1% on this underlying metric, which has lost ground in three of the past four months. Adjusted for retail prices, Rosenberg added, volume sales slipped -0.4% month-over-month in what was the worst drubbing since last May.

Still, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, cited some positives in the numbers, noting back to back quarterly sales volumes were up by the most in eight years. He noted retail sales volumes posted the strongest back to back quarterly percentage gains in the second half of 2024 since 2017 if only the period over the second half of 2020 when the economy was reopening is excluded. He also noted volumes were up by about 4.5% quarter over quarter in Q3 and at least that much again in Q4, and "perhaps significantly more," as the final figures for that month aren't in yet.

Further, Holt said, because of the way Q4 appears to have ended, there is already a "running head start baked in" for Q1 of over 2% q/q SAAR before we even get any Q1 data.

Holt added: "Going forward, subject to whether tariff wars are just baloney or for real, the base case conditions are robust for Canadian consumption.

"Consider the lagging effects of rate cuts, lagging immigration effects into housing, pent-up demand, high horded household net worth way above what trend drivers would have predicted, idled deposits and cash waiting to be turned into down payments, fiscal stimulus with billions arriving in 2025H1, December's easing of mortgage rules etc etc.

"We all know tariffs could derail this ... But don't lose sight of the momentum and drivers into a period of uncertainty. Make your assumptions as you see fit about probability of tariffs (I think high), probability of retaliation (high), absence of carve outs (high) and longevity (don't know). And make assumptions about mitigating measures, like how fiscal policy stands in, and how monetary policy evolves which is critically dependent upon retaliation.

"On the latter, be open to rates going up or down in tariff wars."

Of commodities, gold futures fell off a three-month high late afternoon on Thursday despite a weaker dollar. Gold for February delivery was last seen down $9.60 to US$2,761.30 per ounce, after rising to the highest since the Oct.30 record close of US$2,800.80 a day earlier.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed lower for a fifth-straight session despite a report showing a drop in U.S. inventories last week. WTI crude oil for March delivery closed down $0.82 to settle at US$75.62 per barrel, while March Brent crude was last seen down $1.15 to US$77.85.