04:17 PM EST, 11/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange rose to a second-straight record high on Friday, with investors buoyed by positive news for the Canadian economy in the September retail sales data, a positive outlook for consumers on the promise of some government payouts to come and higher commodity prices.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 53.60 points to 25,444.28, climbing off Thursday previous record close. Among sectors today, most were higher, led by Industrials and the Battery Metals Index, both up more than 1%. No sector fell by as much as even 0.8%. Advancing issues outpaced decliners 1,310 to 578, with 140 listings closing unchanged.

October retail sales rose by 0.4% in the month, in line with Statistics Canada's flash estimate, Desjardins noted the advance was broad based, and both volumes and core sales "appear to be on solid footing", with October growth looking to be "even more outsized".

After the release, Desjardins is tracking annualized real GDP growth of 1.0% for Q3, below the latest Bank of Canada projection of1.5%. For the fourth quarter, the Desjardins' tracking is in the 2% to 2.5% range, roughly in line with the BoC's 2% forecast. Both September and third-quarter GDP data is due out next Friday.

With inflation back at 2% and the consumer on an "increasingly solid footing", Desjardins expects the BoC will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in December, and should continue its rate cutting cycle next year.

Looking further ahead, Desjardins said "still elevated" shelter inflation and upcoming mortgage renewals could continue to temper household spending in the coming months, although declining borrowing rates due to anticipated BoC rate cuts should ease consumer finances. Desjardins noted the federal government's planned GST break for certain retail purchases could also temporarily boost consumer spending from mid-December until mid-February. As well, $200.00 cheques being mailed out by the Government of Ontario early in the new year and $250.00 from the Government of Canada in Q2 2025 "won't hurt either." As such, Desjardins added, retail sales per capita could improve next year, although it expects overall nominal sales to soften amidst sharply slowing population growth -- as per government-planned reductions in non-permanent and permanent residents.

Of commodities today, gold was higher for a fifth-straight session late afternoon on Friday, continuing a recovery from post-election losses even as the dollar rose to the highest level in two years. Gold for February delivery was last seen up $33.80 to US$2,733.10 per ounce.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Friday, adding to the geopolitical risk premium that pushed prices up 1.8% a day earlier. WTI crude oil for January delivery closed US$1.14 to settle at US$71.24 per barrel, while January Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed up US$0.94 to US$75.17.