04:24 PM EST, 11/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high on Monday following five days of gains on weaker commodity prices even as a study said a Trump presidency may be less dire for Canada than feared.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 33.93 points to 25,410.35. Energy, down 1.77%, was the biggest decliner, while the biggest gainers were Information Technology, up 1.27%, and Telecom, up 1.21%. Advancing issues topped decliners 1,297 to 630, with 138 listings closing unchanged.

Among stocks to watch in Canada, Unifor said on Monday its members at Canadian National Railway ( CNI ) have authorized a strike action at the railroad if the parties fail to reach an agreement by Jan. 1, Reuters is reporting Monday.

CI Financial ( CIXXF ) jumped 30% to the highest since 2015 as Mubadala Capital moved to take it private via a $4.7 billion all-cash offer.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a loss of 3.2% even as the dollar was sharply lower as geopolitical tensions cooled following reports Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement to end its conflict with the Hezbollah militia group in the country. WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down US$2.30 to settle at US$68.94 per barrel, while January Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed down US$2.16 to US$73.01.

Gold prices traded sharply lower late afternoon, dropping for the first time in six sessions despite a weakening dollar as geopolitical tensions eased following reports Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement over Israel's war with the Hezbollah militia group. Gold for February delivery was last seen down US$84.20 to US$2,653.00 per ounce.

A study by Desjardins' Tiago Figueiredo offered some optimism for those worries about Donald Trump's promise of blanket tariffs on imports. Figueiredo said a large share of Canadian exports to the United States will receive exemptions from Trump's tariffs. He noted energy exports have steadily grown as a share of total U.S. imports and said the interconnectedness of auto sector supply chains also favors leaving duties unchanged.

"That said, just the prospect of tariffs should push US companies to front-load international purchases in anticipation of higher prices, boosting 2025 Canadian growth through higher exports. As such, our economics team is forecasting higher growth in 2025. However, once some tariffs are implemented, economic growth could slow to just above 1% in 2026," he noted

However, once some tariffs are implemented, economic growth could slow to just above 1% in 2026, he said.

On the Canadian economy itself, Figueiredo said Canadian economic momentum appears to have bottomed in the third quarter,, with nascent signs of improvement heading into the final trimester of 2024. He noted GDP tracking for Q4 is hovering around 2% to2.5%, slightly higher than the Bank of Canada's October forecasts, and the labor market has continued to add jobs and the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized at roughly 6.5%.

"With population growth set to slow materially in the coming months, labour supply and demand is likely to move into better balance next year. Meanwhile, retail sales per capita is now trending higher. With new fiscal measures reducing sales taxes over the holiday season and providing cash transfers in spring 2025, the recent trend in per capita spending should continue. Ontario will also be issuing cash payments next year which could further support consumer spending."

Figueiredo said he sees slim odds of a follow up 50 basis point rate cut from the Bank of Canada. With inflation proving to be stickier than expected and economic growth rebounding, he added the ingredients for another jumbo rate cut aren't in place.

"As such, we continue to expect the Bank of Canada will lower its policy rate by 25 basis points in December. Still, the Bank of Canada will likely have to keep lowering rates in 2025 to offset the drag from mortgage renewals. The Canadian dollar has depreciated over the past month as markets expect U.S.-Canada policy rate differentials to widen in 2025. That said, with short positions in the Canadian dollar at record highs, there's scope to see a near-term rebound in the currency."