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TSX Closer: The Market Closes Higher on Rising Commodity Prices, Rate Cut Hopes
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TSX Closer: The Market Closes Higher on Rising Commodity Prices, Rate Cut Hopes
Sep 10, 2024 4:11 PM

04:18 PM EDT, 09/09/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Monday following four losing sessions, buoyed by resource issues as commodity prices rose, while expectations for an economic boost from interest-rate cuts in Canada and its No.1 trade partner boosted financial issues.

The S&P TSX Composite Index closed up 245.72 points to close at 23,027.15. Health Care, up 1.7%, was the biggest gainer, with Information Tech, Industrials and Financials up 1.4%. Battery Metals was the biggest decliner, down 3.4%.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher, climbing off an 18-month low on dip buying and the formation of tropical storm Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to strengthen to hurricane status as it tracks towards oil-producing platforms offshore Texas and Louisiana. WTI crude for October delivery closed up US$1.04 to settle at US$68.36 per barrel, while November Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed up US$0.78 to US$71.84

Gold moved higher mid-afternoon on Monday, rebounding from a prior-session loss despite a strengthening dollar and higher treasury yields. Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$10.30 to US$2,534.90 per ounce.

David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, said for the Bank of Canada (BoC) ahead, he expects cuts of 25 basis points (bps) per meeting to continue with the Overnight rate falling to 2.5% in July 2025. But Doyle said, "risks to this are tilted towards a more substantial, and front loaded, easing path."

Friday's weak jobs data reinforced the downside risks to the BoC's growth outlook and the potential for a 50 bps rate cut in October, he added.

Meanwhile, Macquarie colleague, Global FX & Rates Strategist Thierry Wizman, said Friday's U.S. employment report "wasn't weak enough" to spur the Federal Reserve to start its easing cycle with a 50 bps cut.

"That would likely require a financial crash between now and next week," he said, before adding: "But the employment report had enough weak spots to suggest that the U.S. economy is still slouching toward recession, all the same."

S&P Global Ratings today published a weekly preview of the most important upcoming economic data for the U.S. and Canada. According to it, Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is unlikely to settle the debate if a 25 or 50 bps rate cut is coming from the Fed in its upcoming policy meeting next week.

S&P is sticking with a 25 bps forecast, although it added the employment report from last week did add to the probability of a 50-bps cut.

Still, Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) released its Investment Strategy Report believes there will be additional bouts of volatility between now and the November election in the U.S., and investors should take the opportunity to re-balance and trim risk assets.

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