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TSX Closer: The Market Rebounds After a String of Losses Despite Falling Oil Prices
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TSX Closer: The Market Rebounds After a String of Losses Despite Falling Oil Prices
Nov 3, 2024 1:07 PM

04:19 PM EDT, 10/28/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange ended a losing streak on Monday, closing higher for the first time in six sessions despite weaker oil prices.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 101.99 points to 24,565.66. The biggest gainers were Health Care and Financials, up 0.9%, followed by Information Technology, up 0.8%. Energy, down 1.7%, is the biggest decliner. Advancing issues outpaced decliners 1,090 to 762, with 167 issues closing unchanged.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed down 6.1% on Monday as a geopolitical-risk premium faded after Israel launched a relatively limited retaliation for Iran's Oct.1 missile attack on the country. WTI crude oil for December delivery closed down US$4.40 to settle at US$67.38 per barrel, while December Brent crude, the global benchmark closed down US$4.63 to US$71.42.

Gold prices were mostly steady midafternoon Monday as Israel's limited retaliatory attack on Iran on the weekend lowered some geopolitical worries, through safe-haven buying ahead of the Nov.5 U.S. election and a weaker dollar offered support. Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$2.20 to US$2,756.80 per ounce.

In a Monday note, Desjardins Economic Studies said unless a major crisis in the Middle East disrupts production, a global oil glut could arrive in 2025 with supply set to increase despite moderating demand growth.

Gasoline consumption, it added, is also in the midst of a transformation, with the effects of increased fuel efficiency in combustion engines and the penetration of electric vehicles being felt faster than anticipated. As a result, Desjardins noted the price of WTI has fallen from US$85 per barrel in July to US$70 per barrel at the time of writing.

But according to it, expectations for next year's oil glut may be overblown. China could continue with destocking and producers, mainly in the West, could end up slashing production in the face of low prices, it said. For these reasons, Desjardins expects WTI to approach US$75 per barrel in the next few quarters..

Rosenberg Research published a note on U.S. markets, which may be of interest to Canadian stock pickers, not least those who look at dual listed stocks. The research noted the S&P 500 has rallied despite earnings downgrades, uncertainty around the U.S. election outcome and a trimming of rate cut bets by the Federal Reserve putting the overall market on "less solid footing".

"Hiding behind fundamentally strong segments with an attractive risk-reward profiles and continued earnings upgrades would be a recommended strategy to ride out the uncertainty ahead. We recommend increased exposure to segments with earnings upgrade momentum while trimming exposure to areas with downgrades and taking some profits in the case of high dividend-yielding areas", it noted

Rosenberg Research downgraded Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate to Neutral and Health Care to Underweight. At the same time, it upgraded Technology to Neutral as it continues to be one of the areas seeing earning upgrades, though high valuations stopped it short of an outright Overweight stance.

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