04:05 PM EST, 11/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange gained more than 400 points and returned above the 30,300 level Monday as investors are coming out of a busy few weeks that saw the release of key central bank-related news and views, a long awaited federal government budget and a breakdown of trade talks with the United States still apparently optimistic about the outlook for Canada.

Today, the resources heavy TSX was up 404.44 points or 1.35% at 30,316.63, buoyed by elevated commodity prices, even if Rosenberg Research said it had "already observed some corrections in the crowded gold and metals trades, resulting in a volatility spike in related stocks" and added its model's signals "point to reversal risks remaining elevated."

Most sectors were higher, led by Base Metals up 2.6%, Info Tech up near 2.2%, and each of Energy, Health Care and the Battery Metals Index up about 1.5%. For its part, Industrials was down near 0.2%.

Rosenberg Research published its latest 'Strategizer', a monthly guidebook for active investors, in which it said its asset mix recommendation remains unchanged: underweight equities in favor of fixed income.

Among highlights, within equities, 'Strategizer' strongly favors Japan and broader Asia over Canada and the United States. It said the secular bull market in gold is not broken, but added the recent market data point to a high risk of a pause in the upward trend. Also, it found commodity scores climbed to the high end of the neutral zone, suggesting weakness in oil and gas might be close to overdone.

According to the research, Canada's equity score remains low, in underweight territory at 20.3, despite a small recovery from its earlier reading at 17.6. It noted Canada's TSX has benefited from the quick run-up in mining stocks over the past six months. Therefore, it said, technical indicators and valuations (especially ex. Mining) still show extreme levels, implying a heightened likelihood of short-term reversal risk. "To confirm the validity of Strategizer's risk flag, we have already observed some corrections in the

crowded gold and metals trades, resulting in a volatility spike in related stocks. The model's signals point to reversal risks remaining elevated," the research added.

Among Canadian sectors, Materials, Energy, Financials, and Real Estate occupy the top four rankings in the latest 'Strategizer'. It said this list did not change, except for Energy and Financials swapping their second and third spots. Of other sectors, Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples occupy the bottom of the rankings with a three-way tie. The Health Care sector dropped to the bottom four from a mid-rank of 6 last month. The Industrials sector sits one step up from the bottom three.

Meanwhile, Strategizer's commodity model jumped from 56.0 to 68.3 in October, the highest reading in a year, now sitting at the high end of the "neutral" range. It noted the model "continues to be characterized by depressed fundamentals" in the oil market, coupled with historically cheap valuations. Positioning, at a 28th-percentile reading, remains under-owned, and technicals continue to flash near oversold (below the 40th percentile), the research said. Sentiment has started to erode (from the 73rd percentile to the 63rd) and was the driving force behind the model's uptick this month (contrarian positive), it added.

In terms of individual commodities, 'Strategizer' noted aluminum (#1), wheat (#2), sugar (#3), heating oil (#4), and natural gas (#5) make up the top of the rankings. Its gold model score ticked lower to 6.8 from 7.9 last month, representing the lowest level since launching this model back in 2023 (and lowest since March 2022 in back-tested results). Valuations and technical indicators are near 90th percentile prints, while sentiment and positioning are also at elevated levels, the research said, before adding likelihood of a further correction, or a range-bound/consolidation trend, remains high.

'Strategizer' said the market is taking notice of recent extremes in the data. It noted spot gold has dropped approximately -6% from its peak on October 20th. However, the steep rise in gold prices from mid-August to mid-October (+30% in two months) still dominates its model's signals. "We remain bullish on gold in the long term, supported by developments in policy and geopolitics, but were not surprised to see a pullback in price after such an extraordinary run."

Of commodities today, gold traded higher by midafternoon Monday as investors return to risk assets on a potential deal to end the shutdown of the U.S. government. Gold for December delivery was up US$112.10 to US$4,121.90 per ounce, the highest since Oct. 24, but still below the metal's Oct.20 record high of US$4,359.40.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher but remains rangebound as over-supply worries continue even as the U.S. Senate took its first step to ending the shutdown of the government that has hobbled the country's economy. WTI crude oil for December delivery closed up $0.38 to settle at US$60.13 per barrel, while January Brent crude was last seen up $0.36 to US$63.99.