12:18 PM EST, 12/02/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 136 at midday, with all sectors lower.

Telecoms is the sole gainer, up 0.5%.

Healthcare, down 2%, is the biggest decliner, followed by energy and miners each down 1.1%.

Oil prices advanced early on Monday as China reported factory activity rose the most in five months in November while fresh violence in the Middle East added to geopolitical risk ahead of Thursday's OPEC+ meeting.

But gold prices eased as the dollar climbed on rising expectations the Federal Reserve may not be inclined to again lower interest rates when policy committee meets later this month.

The TSX managed to claw out a 0.8% gain last week, notes BMO, in its morning note, with strength in technology and health care countered by declines in energy and materials. All the talk was around the threat of a 25% tariff on all U.S. imports from Canada, and the economic impact that would have. While there was some response in a few pockets of the equity market, the impact on the TSX more broadly was muted and the index managed to finish at a record high. The loonie was under pressure early, but managed to claw back much of the declines by the end of the week. Bond yields, however, fell and largely stayed lower.

The market is still pricing in about 50/50 odds of 50-bp Bank of Canada rate cut on Dec. 11, and expectations for the terminal rate have now drifted below 3% next year, BMO added.

BMO adds that there are no major data releases on deck today, although monthly auto sales data will roll out later in the afternoon.

There are also a couple notable pieces of data later in the week:

Labour productivity (Wednesday) looks to dip 0.3% in Q3, leaving it roughly in-line with year-ago levels. Upward GDP revisions will make the history look 'less bad', but that won't undo the negative Canadian productivity story. The merchandise trade report (Thursday) will likely show a seventh straight goods trade deficit in October. BMO is estimating a $1.3 billion shortfall, in line with the previous month.

Employment (Friday) is expected to rise 20k in November, not enough to prevent an uptick in the unemployment rate, to 6.6%. As BMO's Benjamin Reitzes notes, it's been a quirky past couple of months for the Labour Force Survey, as population growth remained firm, but labour force growth slowed sharply. Combined with modest employment gains, that's led to a steady unemployment rate but plunging participation and employment rates. "We'll also be watching hours worked to see how Q4 is evolving after the mediocre October GDP flash estimate."

Finally, wage growth is expected to slow modestly to around 4.5% y/y, still much too strong for the BoC's comfort.

Scotia, in its morning note, said the Friday night dinner meeting between Trudeau, Trump and a mishmash of others was described by both sides as productive and excellent, but there were no assurances provided on next steps.