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TSX Down 75 Points at Midday
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TSX Down 75 Points at Midday
Jun 25, 2024 9:50 AM

12:18 PM EDT, 06/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 75 points at midday, with most sectors lower. The technology sector, up 0.9%, is the sole gainer.

In stocks, Victoria Gold ( VITFF ) , has plunged 85% and the most actively traded with near 5 million shares changing hands, a day after the company reported the collapse of the heap-leach pad at its Eagle gold mine in the Yukon.

The index is lower after higher than expected Canada May CPI figures cast doubt on a July rate cut.

In commodities, oil prices dipped, pausing gains that have seen the commodity rise 11% over the past three weeks on expected strong summer demand and geopolitical risks.

Gold prices fell on a strengthening dollar and rising treasury yields.

Natural gas traded lower amid rising production and forecasts that most northern states will see seasonal or cooler temperatures, lowering cooling demand. Heat in southern states is offering some support to prices.

In Canada, all eyes were on the CPI numbers for May.

CIBC Economics noted another disappointment for Canada -- following the Oilers' loss in Game 7 of the National Hockey League finals yesterday -- as inflation moved in the wrong direction. The CPI accelerated to 2.9% y/y, against expectations for an easing from 2.7% to 2.6%.

Canadian bond yields jumped on the upside surprise as odds of further rate cuts were reduced.

CIBC noted there is one more CPI print before the July Bank of Canada meeting and a plethora of other economic data. It said: "While this print clearly tilts the risks towards fewer cuts than the three more that we have penciled in for the year, policymakers are in data dependent mode and will need to see a wider set of data in order to determine if the acceleration in CPI in May was an anomaly or the start of a trend."

The Globe and Mail reported traders are dialing back their bets of a repeat performance next month. It noted money markets are pricing in a 34% chance of a rate cut on July 24, down from roughly 60% before the release of the CPI report, according to Bloomberg data.

For RBC Economics the Bottom Line is that the acceleration in May CPI growth is the first significant upside surprise of 2024. It noted the closely watched 3 month growth rates for the median and trim measures ticked back above the 2% inflation target, but year-to-date (5-month average) increases are "still essentially bang-on" 2%. RBC said: "The BoC is highly data dependent, and the upside surprise in May CPI growth will put more focus on the June CPI numbers to be released ahead of the next policy rate decision in July. But softening per-capita GDP and rising unemployment also increase the odds that price growth will continue to broadly slow."

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