12:19 PM EDT, 10/31/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 336 points at midday, with all sectors lower, possibly reflecting some concerns that worse-than-expected job data out of the U.S. on Friday will highlight continued weakness in the labour market there, and also concerns around the result of next week's U.S. presidential election

Info tech, down 2.7%, is the biggest decliner, followed by miners, down 2.4%.

Healthcare, up 3%, is the biggest gainer, followed by utilities (+0.3%). Bausch Health Companies (BHC.TO), is up 13%.

Oil prices rose for a second day on Thursday following an unexpected drop in U.S. oil inventories and reports that OPEC+ is considering postponing a plan to add 180.000 barrels per day of additional supply monthly beginning in December.

Gold early Thursday traded down from a record high even as the dollar and treasury yields eased after a key U.S. inflation measure edged down in September.

Natural gas traded lower ahead of fresh storage data from the Energy Information Administration as mild weather continues to limit demand ahead of tomorrow's official start to the winter heating season.

On the U.S., Rosenberg Research said "the script has been flipped" on the pre-usual election volatility patterns. Bond markets are at their most unsettled since 2008, while equities are serene. In this election, it added, uncertainty is likely to persist well beyond voting day. "So buckle up for a period of elevated volatility."

The research offered some suggestions for how to position: "Putting everything together, the surest bet out there is on near-term volatility. We advise sticking to the fundamentals and ensuring the portfolio is well-diversified going into the election. Those best positioned to weather the storm will hold gold (and avoid over-exposure to the dollar) and defensive equities like Utilities, diversify equity exposure with some global holdings with low gearing to the U.S. election (places like India stand out), and won't be caught under-exposed to fixed income (volatility notwithstanding).

"Keep duration long, mind you -- the recent softness has made entering a Treasuries position more attractive, and as yesterday's strong 7-year auction showed, there is plenty of demand at current prices."

Meanwhile, here in Canada, CIBC noted Canadian GDP was "both trick and treat", with weakness at the start of the third quarter followed by a solid rebound during its final month. However, CIBC said, even with a solid end to the quarter, a downward revision to July meant that the first estimate for third quarter growth came in weaker than the Bank of Canada's already downgraded MPR forecast. If this is mirrored in the expenditure figures released at the end of November, it would support the case for another 50bp cut at the December meeting, it added.

CIBC noted monthly GDP was flat in August, which was in line with the consensus forecast but followed a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in the prior month (previously +0.2%). Weakness in August was partly the result of a brief rail stoppage, which led to a near 8% monthly decline in that sector, although other areas such as manufacturing, utilities and wholesaling also saw declines. The 0.4% drop in activity at goods-producing sectors took the level of activity to its lowest since December 2021.

"Today's figures," CIBC said, "suggest that the economy continued to grow at a pace below its long-run potential in Q3, which is consistent with the slight rise in unemployment rate seen during the quarter. With growth once again appearing to fall short of their already downgraded forecast, we continue to forecast that policymakers will deliver another 50bp cut at the December meeting. However, admittedly the expenditure GDP data at the end of November, combined with upcoming labour force numbers, are more important for that call than today's data."

Of note, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has said the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates by half a percentage point again if the economic conditions warrant it. "We're taking it one meeting at a time. We've demonstrated we're prepared to do a 50-basis-points cut if we think that's appropriate. And if we think it's appropriate to do it again, we'll do it again," Macklem told the Senate committee on banking, commerce and the economy on Wednesday, The Globe and Mail reported. Last week, the central bank lowered its policy rate by a half-point, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.75%. This followed three smaller quarter-point cuts, starting in June.