12:17 PM EST, 11/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is sharply lower at midday, with all sectors down. Miners and info tech are the worst performers, down 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

BMO Economics in its morning note, points out there is no data in the U.S. today as the government shutdown continues, which is also delaying Canada's merchandise trade data, which should have been out today. StatCan said it won't be able to release the numbers because it does not have key U.S. import data. It also warned that other indicators such and Canada's quarterly GDP will rely on "special estimates" rather than actual figures, and therefore could be faced with larger revisions down the road.

Meanwhile, BMO noted, It's Budget Day in Canada, the first for PM Carney. BMO's Robert Kavcic noted, "The fiscal picture is cloudy given that the costed Liberal platform has been rendered mostly obsolete by the evolving economic outlook and shifting policy priorities. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's (PBO) September outlook incorporates policy measures announced through mid-August as well as the increase in defence spending to 2% of GDP for FY25/26. That raises the baseline federal deficit to $68.5 billion (2.2% of GDP) for FY25/26 and $64.2 billion for FY26/27, versus an average of less than $40 billion in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement (i.e., the last official budget document from Ottawa). Moreover, additional election promises and cost-saving measures not yet announced through mid-August (and on Sep. 5) could further shift the fiscal outlook. Ottawa has flexibility here as to which priorities they want to roll out, and when, as well as how aggressive/early cost savings will be pushed. Based on the platform estimates, however, the federal deficit could push into the mid-$70 billion range this fiscal year, and persist near $70 billion in FY26/27."

Elsewhere, Derek Holt, Vice-President & Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, agreed the main event for many of us will be Canada's federal budget that gets released after today's market close.

According to Holt, nobody can forecast deficits as evidenced by Ottawa's own track record that is routinely off by large amounts and misses inflection points.

BoC Governor Macklem's fireside chat yesterday offered no materially new insights yesterday compared to his communications last week, Holt added.