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TSX Takes A Pit Stop Friday After Speeding To Record High Levels This Week; BMO With Canadian Strategy Snapshot
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TSX Takes A Pit Stop Friday After Speeding To Record High Levels This Week; BMO With Canadian Strategy Snapshot
Mar 22, 2024 1:39 PM

04:27 PM EDT, 03/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's main stock market, the Toronto Stock Exchange, closed down more than 100 points Friday amid lower commodity prices and likely some profit taking after setting a record close - albeit by a single point -- yesterday.

Among commodities, gold prices fell off from a record high on Friday as the dollar rose to a month high. Gold for June delivery closed down US$24.90 to settle at US$2,181.60 per ounce, a day after closing above the US$2,200 mark for the first time. The price of the metal is being buoyed by expectations lower interest rates are on the way after the Federal Reserve this week forecast rate cuts of 75 basis points this year, even as it left its benchmark rate at a 23-year high.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on Friday, falling for a third day as the dollar rose. WTI crude for May delivery closed down US$0.44 to settle at US$80.63 per barrel, while May Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed down US$0.35 to US$85.43.

Most sectors were lower, led by Telecom as the biggest decliner, shedding 1.5%, and Info Tech, down 1.1%. But the biggest mover on the day was a gainer, with the Healthcare sector up 5%, led by strong gains in cannabis stocks. Thursday, the expert panel convened by the Canadian federal government to study legislation that made cannabis legal in this country released its final report, which was seen as positive for the sector.

Among 54 recommendations made, the panel urged Finance Canada to consider a new model that would increase excise taxes on products with high quantities of tetrahydrocannabinol, and lower fees on those with smaller amounts. The panel also recommended that Health Canada reduce the financial and administrative burden it places on participants in the legal industry, as there appears to be room to revise certain regulatory requirements without compromising public health or public safety.

Market talk around potential early and regular rate cuts here in Canada also likely capped losses today. For its part, BMO Economics is maintaining its Bank of Canada call for 100 bps of interest rate cuts in 2024, beginning in June. "While there are good arguments both ways, we have long been of the view that the BoC will move ahead of the Fed, just as they did on the way up," said Douglas Porter in his weekly 'Talking Points' note on this Friday.

in a big picture piece, BMO Capital Markets noted that its view on Canadian equities heading into 2024 was that the investing climate "was way too negative". As we approach the end of the first calendar quarter of 2024, BMO maintains the view that analysts and investors "remain overly cautious" -- noting that fundamental metrics such as earnings, valuation, and operating performance in several areas are showing "definitive signs of troughing".

However, BMO's Brian Belski said that troughing or bottoming is "not quite the fuel to spawn the return" to the revival that the bank still expects to transpire. For instance, he noted, fourth-quarter earnings season was "uneventful" and provided little forward guidance. Furthermore, he also noted, analysts continue to revise estimates lower and the growth outlook for the TSX is now in the mid-single-digit range out to 2025.

"In our view," Belski said, "we believe these more defensive outlooks are setting the stage for very bearable quarters ahead. As such, we continue to believe Canada remains the contrarian call in terms of developed markets in 2024, even as the TSX hits a new all-time high."

Belski added: "As the reality of a more resilient economy (for both Canada and the U.S.) coupled with increasingly stable interest rates become clear in the second half of 2024, we believe earnings growth will begin to rebound faster than currently expected."

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