12:15 PM EST, 01/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange has turned negative at midday and is down near 40 points, with healthcare (-1.6%) and energy (-0.9%), the biggest decliners.

Info tech is the biggest gainer, up 0.7%.

Oil prices edged higher early on Friday as traders awaited clarity on whether the Trump Administration will include oil imports in its plan to begin imposing 25% tariffs on Feb.1.

Gold edged up to a fresh record high on safe-haven demand even as the dollar rose after a key U.S. inflation measure steadied last month. TD Economics noted inflationary pressures were little changed in December. The Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core PCE price deflator, rose 0.2% month over month, up slightly from the 0.1% increase seen in November. In year-over-year terms, core PCE inflation remained unchanged at 2.8%.

But natural gas prices weakened for a second day on Friday as long-term forecasts see mild weather coming for big eastern markets. The price drop comes despite a day-prior report showing a larger than expected drop in U.S. inventories of the fuel.

The TSX was also likely steady as data today showed that while Canada's economy pulled back in November, a December lift is in the cards.

TD Economics noted Canadian economic growth took a step back in November, falling 0.2% month-on-month, a tick below Statistics Canada's advanced guidance and consensus expectations. But early estimates from Statistics Canada point to a 0.2% m/m rebound for December GDP growth, due in part to increases in retail trade, manufacturing, and construction activity.

On key implications, TD said: "It's steady as she goes for domestic growth developments, as recent data comes in more or less in line with expectations. With November GDP data and December guidance, growth in the fourth quarter is tracking on point with the Bank of Canada's (BoC) most recent projections (1.8% q/q annualized). This would mark a decent acceleration from Q3's more meager gain of just 1% and provides a decent handoff into 2025, especially given looming uncertainties."

TD added: "The BoC has its work cut out for them. After slashing interest rates this week, they will now wait for further details about Trump's tariff implementation plan, which will come as early as tomorrow."

Meanwhile, tariff threats on Mexico and Canada "remain fluid" and are unlikely to go into effect on Feb. 1, according to a Macquarie strategist. Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie, does not expect that permanent country-level tariffs will be actually made effective on Feb. 1 on Mexico and Canada. Hopefully, he said, the pressure tactic will work instead to further negotiations toward an eventual strengthening of US-Canada-Mexico supply chains, which is needed to 'de-risk' from China.

Wizman added: "Our view is that Trump's only legal standing for imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada under the border concerns is his claim that tariffs are consistent with the "exception for essential security" clause in the USMCA Treaty (Article 32.2). These allow for the US to "apply measures that it considers necessary for the fulfillment of its obligations with respect to the maintenance or restoration of international peace or security, or the protection of its own essential security interests." Of course, tariffs or even the abrogation of the Treaty could be allowed under a very broad interpretation of the clause. But a legal court would likely see tariffs as being outside that narrower interpretation, in our opinion."