12:15 PM EST, 01/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 8100 points at midday, with industrials (+1.1%) and utilities (+0.8%), leading gains.

Limiting gains are declines in miners (-1%).

In terms of Canadian data, focus today was on the release of retail sales data for November, and with that a more timely December 'Flash' estimate. "Canadians held onto their cash in November, only to meaningfully increase spending in December," said Tiago Figueiredo at Desjardins. Retail receipts were unchanged in November, missing expectations for a 0.2% advance. Much like the prior few releases, most of the spending in November came from automotive sales. Excluding that category, sales fell 0.7%, well below expectations for a one tick advance. Moreover, only four subsectors saw sales rise, "pointing to another month of narrow breadth". In volumes terms, Figueiredo noted sales fell 0.4%, the first decline since July of last year. He said much of the weakness in November's figures may have been driven by the GST holiday delaying purchases until December.

According to Statistics Canada's flash estimate, retail sales rose 1.6% in December. Figueiredo noted good prices were only up 0.3% over the month, suggesting that "a large chunk of that strength" came from a rebound in volumes, potentially tied to the GST holiday. He said the weakness in November meant that per-capita spending fell over the month, but added that in assuming the flash estimate proves true for December, that decline looks to have been fleeting.

Figueiredo said the Bank of Canada will "likely look through any of this choppiness" in retail receipts. He noted it looks like consumers simply waited until the GST holiday in December to do their holiday shopping, in line with expectations. As such, the Desjardins quarterly GDP tracking hasn't changed much, with Q4 hovering around the 2.5% mark. That's above the Bank of Canada's 2% estimate from the October MPR, but it's unclear if this pace of growth is sustainable.

CIBC said there was little market reaction to the data, as this doesn't change the narrative around the BoC's trajectory, with the tariff threat still taking centre stage. "Looking at the two-month change in spending implies that lower interest rates are working to boost consumer spending, but ample lost ground remains to made up. Further interest rate reductions are clearly needed, with inflation below target, and downside risks from the threat of tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. We continue to look for the overnight rate to get to 2.25% in Q2," said CIBC's Katherine Judge.