12:24 PM EDT, 06/26/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 126 points with miners (+4.6%), posting the biggest gains.

Info tech is the sole decliner, down 0.8%.

In terms of domestic economics, the focus was on Statistics Canada Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) data for April. CIBC's Andrew Grantham said the report continues to point to a weaker labour market than the more commonly followed Labour Force Survey, supporting the case for more interest rate cuts.

The SEPH posted a 6K decline in April, following a revised 21K (prev. -54K) drop in the prior month. Grantham added that while trade sensitive sectors such as manufacturing and transportation posted declines, lower employment was also recorded in sectors that should be less sensitive to U.S. trade such as accommodation & food services. Increases in employment within health, education and public admin partially offset the declines seen in other areas.

The report also highlighted a decline in job vacancies and the vacancy rate, while the number of unemployed persons per job opening rose to 3.1, up from 2.9 in March. Despite the weakness in other indicators, fixed weight hourly earnings accelerated to 4.7%, from 2.9%, although this series has been particularly volatile recently. Overall, Grantham said, the weaker trend within this survey suggests the labour market is softer than the LFS report does, and supports CIBC's forecast for two more 25bp cuts from the Bank of Canada before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Morningstar published a note entitled 'How Much Will the Bank of Canada Cut Interest Rates in 2025?' in which it said with tariff fears fading, analysts see domestic data taking the lead in shaping the Bank's path.

While an end to tariff uncertainty is good news for both the economy and investors, economists say it could also result in less aggressive interest rate cuts from the BoC, Morningstar said, before adding: a growing number of economists have already recalibrated their expectations, predicting two more cuts by year-end instead of three.

Morningstar noted analysts say that instead of the trade war, domestic economic indicators -- the mounting jobless rate, economic slack, and weaker consumer and business spending -- will steer the Bank of Canada's next rate move.

It noted the BoC has held off on cuts twice in a row, monitoring macroeconomic developments rather than react to them. Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, is cited as saying, "As it becomes clear the tariffs are not driving core inflation any higher or causing any second-round effects, the mounting signs of weakness in the economy (such as in the labor market, housing, and manufacturing) will push the Bank to cut rates again."

With exemptions in place, Canada's retaliatory tariffs cover closer to C$50 billion, significantly lower than the 25% tariffs on C$155 billion worth of U.S. imports. Ryan extrapolates that core inflation will remain around 3%.