12:16 PM EDT, 08/29/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 197 points with info tech (+1.6%) leading gains, followed by financials, up 1.2%.

The sole decliners are telecoms (-0.1%) and utilities (-0.04%).

Oil prices moved higher early on Thursday, finding support on weak supply after the suspension of exports from Libya after two days of losses spurred by demand worries.

Gold edged higher following two days of losses even as the dollar and yields rose as the U.S. reported its economy rose more than first thought in the second quarter.

But natural gas prices fell ahead of fresh storage data as forecasts see cool weather on the way for major Eastern markets.

What might have contributed to the run up in stock markets this week is the lingering concern that the U.S. economy might yet face a recession. Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie, on Thursday said the recent deterioration in US job-market conditions "looks worrisome" because so much of the recession-on/recession-off debate and so many recession indicators center around trends in the US job market data.

Wizman noted that's the case even though NBER 'recession calls' are not so 'rules-based' as to look at jobs only, but look at the economy broadly.

Even if the US drifts closer to recession, that may not mean a weaker USD, Wizman pointed out. Others are also seeing weakness (e.g., Germany) or set to see weakness too (e.g., UK), suggesting the EUR/USD and GBP/USD are topping. Wizman said we could, however, see lower 10-year UST yields in the near term, as they break (temporarily) below the 3.8% support from late 2023. A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in August would do the trick, he added.

For Wizman, the bottom line is that the US may indeed be drifting more toward recession, led by labor market conditions. "But we wouldn't knee-jerk that into a weak USD view yet. A weaker US economy in the next few months would have political, global, and risk-taking implications that could support the USD further, rather than crush it."