LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine's sovereign dollar
bonds rallied for second consecutive day on Thursday on hopes
that peace talks with Russia could enable a ceasefire in their
war.
Several of Ukraine's bonds gained more than 2 cents before
retracing slightly. By 1110 GMT, the 2036 maturity led the
gains, adding 2.05 cents to be bid at 68.30 cents on the dollar.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald
Trump spoke by phone on Wednesday.
The Kremlin said on Thursday it was impressed by Trump's
position on ending the war, and preparations were under way for
a meeting between the two leaders.
Ukraine's bonds have rallied strongly since Trump's
re-election in November last year, and returned over 60% in
2024. That rally has continued this year, with the 2036 maturity
gaining more than 9 cents since the beginning of January.
"The bond market rally shows the market is increasingly
pricing a ceasefire in, casting aside uncertainties over Trump's
proposals," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager with investment
firm abrdn.
Russia's rouble and stocks also surged on Thursday, with the
currency at its highest since September 2024.
Goldman Sachs said earlier this week that Ukraine's bond
prices now imply at least 50% market odds of a peace deal.
The bank based that calcuation on the price gap between one
bond, the 2035 maturity that includes a higher payout if
Ukraine's economy outperforms International Monetary Fund
estimates through 2028, and other maturities. Goldman said the
full payout from GDP outperformance "is only plausible in the
event of a near-term and lasting resolution to the war."
The market optimism belies concerns over the shape and
durability of a deal, and European leaders have questioned
Trump's approach.
Barclays earlier this week warned that the GDP-linked bonds
- the zero-coupon 2035 and the 2036 maturities, had priced in
"too much medium term optimism," but said that ceasefire
headlines were likely to push them even higher as an initial
reaction.
Szabo also said the bonds overall seemed to "still have a
few points to go."