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Ukraine bonds rally for second day on ceasefire optimism
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Ukraine bonds rally for second day on ceasefire optimism
Feb 13, 2025 3:40 AM

LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine's sovereign dollar

bonds rallied for second consecutive day on Thursday on hopes

that peace talks with Russia could enable a ceasefire in their

war.

Several of Ukraine's bonds gained more than 2 cents before

retracing slightly. By 1110 GMT, the 2036 maturity led the

gains, adding 2.05 cents to be bid at 68.30 cents on the dollar.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald

Trump spoke by phone on Wednesday.

The Kremlin said on Thursday it was impressed by Trump's

position on ending the war, and preparations were under way for

a meeting between the two leaders.

Ukraine's bonds have rallied strongly since Trump's

re-election in November last year, and returned over 60% in

2024. That rally has continued this year, with the 2036 maturity

gaining more than 9 cents since the beginning of January.

"The bond market rally shows the market is increasingly

pricing a ceasefire in, casting aside uncertainties over Trump's

proposals," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager with investment

firm abrdn.

Russia's rouble and stocks also surged on Thursday, with the

currency at its highest since September 2024.

Goldman Sachs said earlier this week that Ukraine's bond

prices now imply at least 50% market odds of a peace deal.

The bank based that calcuation on the price gap between one

bond, the 2035 maturity that includes a higher payout if

Ukraine's economy outperforms International Monetary Fund

estimates through 2028, and other maturities. Goldman said the

full payout from GDP outperformance "is only plausible in the

event of a near-term and lasting resolution to the war."

The market optimism belies concerns over the shape and

durability of a deal, and European leaders have questioned

Trump's approach.

Barclays earlier this week warned that the GDP-linked bonds

- the zero-coupon 2035 and the 2036 maturities, had priced in

"too much medium term optimism," but said that ceasefire

headlines were likely to push them even higher as an initial

reaction.

Szabo also said the bonds overall seemed to "still have a

few points to go."

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