SINGAPORE, June 19 (Reuters) - Index provider MSCI is due to

announce a decision on Indonesia's emerging markets status on

Tuesday in a highly anticipated report that could provide a lift

to an under-pressure market or deal yet another blow to

Southeast Asia's biggest economy.

MSCI in January flagged transparency concerns and warned of

a potential downgrade to frontier status - a risk that sent

equities tumbling. In a review late on Thursday, MSCI raised

further concerns about Indonesia's investability.

Here's what to watch in Tuesday's report:

WHAT HAPPENS IF INDONESIA IS DOWNGRADED?

Investors see a downgrade as unlikely, but if it happens it

would force selling from passive funds that track MSCI's popular

benchmark indexes, as well as any funds where mandates restrict

them from owning frontier market stocks.

It would also likely push active managers to reduce

Indonesia exposure to reflect the benchmark index.

In all, outflows could amount to as much as $13 billion,

Goldman Sachs estimates. An MSCI downgrade would also spur other

index providers including FTSE Russell to act. FTSE kept

Indonesia's emerging markets status in April but a review is due

in June.

WHAT ELSE IS AT STAKE?

Attention will also be on whether MSCI retains a freeze on

Indonesian stocks in its products.

The freeze, announced in January, means no new Indonesian

stocks were added to MSCI's indexes, and six were removed in May

- driving passive money out of Indonesian equities.

Most analysts expect MSCI to extend its freeze while it

reviews Indonesia's responses to its concerns.

ARE INDONESIA'S TROUBLES OVER AFTER NEXT WEEK?

Not necessarily. An affirmation of emerging market status

would likely only provide relief if the risk of a downgrade is

also taken off the table.

That is viewed as unlikely with the one-time market darling

still facing several headwinds.

The core issue of opacity in stock ownership data and

concerns over global investors' ability to assess the true free

float of companies in Indonesia is unresolved, and unpredictable

policymaking has investors and credit rating agencies nervous.

Indonesian shares are down 29% in 2026, making them

the world's worst performing stock market, while bonds have come

under pressure from foreign selling following credit outlook

downgrades by Moody's and Fitch.