(Updates news and prices at 1428 GMT)
By Stefano Rebaudo
May 23 (Reuters) - German 2-year bond yields hit their
highest in six months on Thursday as economic data from the euro
area and Britain led investors to scale back their bets on
future European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts to 60 basis points
in 2024.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone
climbed to 52.3 this month, from April's 51.7, beating
expectations in a Reuters poll for a more modest lift to 52.0.
Negotiated pay growth in the euro zone picked up slightly in
the first quarter of 2024, ECB figures showed, bolstering the
case for caution in cutting interest rates from record highs.
Germany's 2-year yield, more sensitive to policy
rate expectations, hit its highest since mid November, last up 9
basis points (bps) at 3.10%.
Wednesday's inflation figures from Britain led investors to
discount less than 65 bps of ECB rate cuts in 2024 for the first
time this year, driving yields to multi-week highs.
Money markets last priced around 60 bps of ECB rate cuts in
2024 - which implies two 25 bps moves and a
less than 50% chance of a third cut this year - from 67 bps on
Wednesday before the British inflation data.
Analysts take for granted an ECB move in June, but also
highlight that markets have started pricing in less than the cut
every quarter thereafter which had been implied by derivatives
in the last few months.
"The market repricing since April had already taken out much
of the probability for cuts at 'in between' meetings, but it is
now starting to challenge quarterly cuts, with around 65 bp
priced to year-end," Citi analysts said in a research note.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve minutes were seen as hawkish as
policymakers acknowledged disappointment over recent inflation
readings at their last meeting.
"The PMIs for May suggest that the euro zone economy
continued to expand in Q2 while price pressures eased but
remained high in the services sector," said Franziska Palmas,
senior Europe economist at Capital Economics.
"The ECB is still very likely to go ahead with a rate cut in
June, but if the economy continues to hold up well, cuts further
ahead may be slower than we had anticipated," she added.
Germany's 10-year yield, the bloc's benchmark,
rose 7.3 bps to 2.60% after hitting its highest level since late
April.
"Today's purchasing managers' indices support our call for a
continuing economic recovery in the euro zone," said Salomon
Fiedler, economist at Berenberg, adding softer input and output
inflation supports expectations for a rate cut in June.
He forecasts gross domestic product to expand by 0.2% in the
second quarter, before accelerating further.
Italy's 10-year yield rose 7.6 bps to 3.90%,
touching its highest in more than a week.
The gap between Italian and German 10-year bond yields
- a gauge of the risk premium investors seek to
hold bonds of the euro area's most indebted countries - stood at
129 bps.
European Commission figures released on Thursday also showed
euro zone consumer confidence improved to -14.3 this month from
-14.7 in April. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise
to -14.2.