(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - For a special operation, it
looked extremely limited - scarcely the evolving future of a new
face of warfare.
A short video posted Wednesday on the Telegram social media
channel of Ukraine's Special Operations Headquarters showed what
appears to be a Russian Zala 41-16E unmanned aerial vehicle
flying high above Ukraine's contested Kherson region as a
smaller Ukrainian UAV repeatedly attacked it with an attached
wooden stick.
What kind of UAV the Ukrainians were using remains
unclear - the footage was filmed directly from a camera on the
drone, which was itself therefore out of shot. All that was
directly visible was the forward-pointing wooden pole which the
Ukrainian drone pilot attempted to ram through the Russian UAV
propeller, eventually appearing to send both crashing to the
earth.
Against the colossal scale of the conflict in Ukraine,
particularly since Vladimir Putin's 2022 full-scale invasion,
that engagement on its own is not of any great significance.
Tens if not hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian
drones have gone into battle since the war began, with ever more
each month - a battle which looks to be as critical as any other
to the outcome of the war.
Many of the individual drones may look low-tech - the
Russian Zala 41-16E is based on a type first displayed at a
Russian arms fair in 2012, and is reported to have entered
service three years later.
The wider confrontation around their use, however, has
become one of the most important arenas of the Ukraine conflict
- one in which a war-winning system one week can be rendered
swiftly obsolete.
The scale of the change this has wrought on Ukraine's
battlefield is hard to overstate.
While drones have been used throughout the war, the volume
and intensity of their use - and the tit-for-tat technological
race to keep them in the air and striking targets while
rendering the enemy drones unusable - continues to accelerate.
U.S. officials have publicly acknowledged holding back some
ultra-secret drones and associated technology from Ukraine to
avoid losing its secrets ahead of a potential even larger war -
such as one sparked by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Increasingly, however, the sheer tempo of fighting within
Ukraine means technology being used there is developing at a
pace far faster than elsewhere in the world.
Those who watched the conflict say both sides are now taking
technologies from concept to battlefield often within weeks,
very different to traditional defence multi-year procurement
timelines.
While Ukrainian troops continue to be pushed back slowly by
numerically superior Russian forces on the ground, long-range
missiles supplied by the U.S., Britain and France continue to
reach deep into Russian territory, destroying much of the
Russian Black Sea fleet and forcing it out of Crimea.
Meanwhile, drones have made it almost impossible to fight
either side to amass significant forces for an offensive.
Many of the drones themselves are built by small or
medium-sized Ukrainian firms. As it has run short of both
soldiers and ammunition, and realising that the U.S. and its
European allies would fall well short of pledges to provide more
than two million artillery shells by now, Ukraine has set itself
the target of making a million drones a year to fill the gap.
The technology behind them, though, is backed up by some
giant and growing tech firms that see the conflict as a testbed
for new technology in general and artificial intelligence in
particular.
U.S. AI firm Palantir ( PLTR ) - which also supplies the
Pentagon - has been active in Ukraine since 2022, while German
counterpart Helsing signed a memorandum of understanding with
the Kyiv government in February.
Another AI firm on a publicity blitz this week is Anduril,
named for a sword in Lord of the Rings and founded by U.S. tech
entrepreneur Palmer Luckey, 31, a billionaire from his twenties
after founding the virtual reality headset company Oculus.
Luckey's firm says it has also been in Ukraine since the
first period of the war, and is also refining AI drones and
submarines for the Pentagon.
CELLPHONE TOWER MICROPHONES DETECT DRONES
Ukraine continues to have a tough time not just on the
ground - Russian drones and missiles continue to pound Ukrainian
critical infrastructure, especially its electricity grid.
Again, however, this has not prevented sometimes striking
innovation.
Over the past week, U.S. Air Force General James Hecker, who
commands U.S. and NATO air forces in Europe and Africa, and
Lieutenant General Stephen Gainey, who leads U.S. Army air and
space operations, have both praised a Ukrainian system that uses
microphones on cellphone towers to detect drones by their noise.
Based on much more primitive Allied systems during World War
Two, data from the direction-sensitive microphones can be used
to triangulate the location of Russian drones, allowing them to
be engaged by gunfire, jamming or, in theory at least, rammed by
another drone with a stick.
Hecker told an audience at the Royal International Air
Tattoo this week that the system had been designed and built by
two Ukrainian engineers in their garage, and rolled out quickly
and cheaply.
The trick, officials say, is getting other major Western
nations - especially the U.S. - to develop new systems with the
same urgency and effectiveness, rather than taking years or
decades.
A report this week by the U.S. Defense Innovation Board - an
official body staffed by ex-top officials - warns that the pace
of technological change particularly in unmanned vehicles and
artificial intelligence risks leaving behind the world's
pre-eminent superpower.
It described the Pentagon procurement system as a "plodding
leviathan with a systemic aversion to risk and a lack of urgency
that has led to a culture of sustaining the status quo ...
Success in related innovation is neither measured nor awarded,
and failures are always admonished."
Some steps forward are bearing fruit - but they often
involve bypassing more sclerotic official systems rather than
reforming them. Last year, the Pentagon unveiled a project known
as "Replicator" designed to deliver very large numbers of drones
quickly for any future China war.
'HELLSCAPE', DRONE SHIELDS
Officials say some of those drones - "switchblade" loitering
munitions - have already been delivered.
According to commanders at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command,
U.S. military leaders hope to use a plethora of unmanned
weaponry to deny the Taiwan Strait to China in the event Beijing
tries to invade Taiwan itself, a project known as "HELLSCAPE".
Drones potentially operating autonomously and feeding back
sensor information into a vast network are also at the heart of
emerging multi-million-dollar border protection plans from
Poland, the Baltic and Nordic states.
These plans are described sometimes as a "drone shield" and
their intent is to field tens of thousands of unmanned vehicles
along the borders of exposed eastern European countries to
counter any Russian attack.
This week at the British army's annual conference in London,
Britain's new army chief General Sir Roland Walker put unmanned
systems at the heart of a reform package he said would make his
force at least twice as lethal by 2027 - the date by which U.S.
officials say China may be prepared to invade Taiwan.
Growing numbers of U.S. and European officials fear any such
attack would be accompanied simultaneously by a war in Europe,
overstretching the U.S. and its European allies.
The threat is now so close, Walker told the conference, that
much of the military equipment Britain had purchased for the
coming years might not have arrived by the time any conflict
erupted. That would deepen the need to invest quickly in drone
and artificial intelligence technology to be ready.
In both Europe and the Pacific, there are clearly hopes this
new form of fighting might help defeat any Russian or Chinese
attack with relatively small numbers of friendly casualties.
The Ukrainian experience, however, has been anything but
bloodless. Thousands of videos show both Russian and Ukrainian
soldiers hunted down in dugouts, buildings or open ground by
"first-person-view" drones being piloted by other soldiers
sometimes only a few miles away.
Giving the drones more ability to select their own targets -
essentially by doing the computing and target identification
within the drone with or without direction from a human operator
- will not make that conflict any friendlier.
The lesson of Ukraine is that technology can evolve at
amazing speed, but the visceral nature of war remains as vicious
and unpleasant as ever.
(Editing by Mark Heinrich)