FRANKFURT/LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - It was late on
Tuesday evening in Europe and investors' suspicions were
growing. The German government's efforts to sell Commerzbank
shares in a market placement, on the face of it, a
simple task, were stalling.
They had expected the deal to wrap up soon after JPMorgan ( JPM )
and Goldman Sachs ( GS ) started taking orders earlier
that afternoon, according to a source familiar with the
transaction and emailed updates the banks sent to investors,
seen by Reuters. Sources requested anonymity because the sale
details were private.
But it wasn't until the early hours of Wednesday that the
news landed.
In a surprise -- and rare move -- all the shares, worth
about 700 million euros ($771.3 million), had gone to one buyer,
and Goldman was no longer involved in the sale.
Italy's UniCredit, led by CEO Andrea Orcel, had
scooped up the whole 4.5% stake by outbidding others.
What's more, the lender had also quietly purchased another
4.5% on the open market, making UniCredit one of the biggest
shareholders and opening the door to a potential deal with
Commerzbank, which had rushed in Goldman as defence adviser.
Some German government officials said they were blindsided
by Orcel's move. But there has been long-standing chatter about
the Italian bank, which is flush with excess capital and already
owns German lender HVB, being keen for Commerzbank if it had the
right opportunity. And European regulators have long favoured
consolidation in a sector plagued by low profitability.
The announcement by Berlin last week that it wanted to sell
some of its 16% crisis-era holding in Commerzbank appears to
have given Orcel, the consummate M&A banker that chance.
"It's unlikely UniCredit stumbled into this in the way it's
being painted in the market, it's likely to be a lot better
coordinated than at first glance and there is likely to be a
complex underlying long-term strategy at play," said Mark Kelly,
CEO of MKP Advisors.
UniCredit declined to comment for this article. Officials
for JPMorgan ( JPM ) and Goldman Sachs ( GS ) declined to comment on their role
in the transaction.
UniCredit paid a 4.8% premium to the closing price on
Tuesday, spending about 700 million euros on the government
stake, according to a term sheet.
JPMorgan ( JPM ) was obliged to accept the best offer in the
interest of a fair and transparent process, another person said,
who was not authorised to speak publicly.
Meanwhile the other bookrunner on the sale, Goldman, had to
step away from the transaction because of the potential
conflict, a third person added. It was now leading the defence
for Commerzbank.
As the news broke on Wednesday, Orcel approached Commerzbank
management with a view to explore potential talks about a
merger, another source with knowledge of the situation told
Reuters.
UniCredit has said it is seeking approval to buy more than
9.9% of Commerzbank should it want to.
"From here, the ball is very much in UniCredit's court,
and all eyes will be on whether it proceeds with increasing its
stake in Commerzbank above 9.9%," said Filippo Alloatti, Head of
Financials (Credit) at Federated Hermes.
Other European banks may also be considering their strategic
options, including Deutsche Bank, which declined to comment on
Wednesday.
Commerzbank has wasted little time. It hastily convened
a board meeting on Wednesday during which it discussed how to
keep the German lender independent, exploring defence strategies
to resist a potential bid from UniCredit, a source said, asking
to remain anonymous because the discussions were private.
Germany is likely to hit pause on any further share sales
after being taken off-guard, a government source said, adding
that the bank and the government needed to assess what is now a
new situation. Trade unionists too, fearing heavy job losses,
also oppose a tie-up.
Commerzbank shares closed up 16.6% at 14.69 euros in
Frankfurt, while UniCredit's closed 0.2% higher in Milan.
($1 = 0.9075 euros)
(Writing by Anousha Sakoui
Editing by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Elisa Martinuzzi and Anna
Driver)