SAO PAULO, March 8 (Reuters) - A meager dividend from
Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras sent its
shares plunging on Friday, erasing more than 70 billion reais
($14 billion) from its market value as analysts questioned how
the firm would spend its growing cash reserves.
The more than 10% drop in shares reflects investors' biggest
frustration yet with Chief Executive Jean Paul Prates, who has
tried to balance the interests of minority shareholders with a
leftist government eager to see more capital spending.
Petrobras has been a major cash cow for its shareholders in
recent years, including the Brazilian government, with the prior
management paying out far more than Western oil major peers.
Under new management picked by President Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva, the company had pared back its payouts, but an
extraordinary dividend was still widely expected in the market.
Goldman Sachs analysts told clients that investors had
expressed expectations of a $3 billion to 4 billion
extraordinary dividend in addition to the predetermined year-end
payout.
In a fourth-quarter earnings release late on Thursday,
Petrobras said it would only pay a routine dividend of 14.2
billion reais ($2.9 billion) to shareholders.
"The message that was passed is very clear: Investors should
expect only minimum dividends for Petrobras," analysts at
JPMorgan wrote, saying the fourth-quarter payout represents a
meager dividend yield of 8.1% in 2024, "substantially below that
of peers that typically deliver returns in the low teens."
The lack of an extra dividend also triggered a slew of
downgrades from analysts, including at Bank of America, Bradesco
BBI and Santander.
Preferred shares in Petrobras plunged more than 10% to 36.16
reais in Friday morning trading in Sao Paulo, responsible for
dragging the benchmark Bovespa stock index 1.4% lower.
The decision "heightens the risk perception at Petrobras,
particularly on the government influence regarding major capital
allocation decisions," analysts at Bank of America wrote in a
note to clients while downgrading the stock to neutral.
Nixing the extra dividend means that Petrobras "could be
pivoting to an agenda more focused on growth in renewables
(triggering higher capex with lower returns) and increases the
probability that the company could pursue M&A," they said.
Analysts at Bradesco BBI also downgraded the firm, saying
they believe "flows could move away from Petrobras to Chinese
oil companies given the recent turnaround in capital discipline
and strong buyback programs," also mentioning Saudi Aramco.
BTG Pactual analysts struck a more balanced tone, noting
that Petrobras had set aside 43.9 billion reais in a fund
earmarked for "capital remuneration."
"So using it for other purposes will require
amendments to the bylaws," they added.
Petrobras reported a 6.3% drop in its fourth-quarter net
recurring profit to 41 billion reais, beating expectations of
35.3 billion reais among analysts polled by LSEG.
($1 = 4.9769 reais)