SANTIAGO, May 29 (Reuters) - Spain are the favorites to

win the 2026 World Cup, ahead of France, Argentina and Brazil,

according to a Goldman Sachs ( GS ) model published on Friday that uses

teams' historical performance and ranking data.

The model gives Spain a 26% chance of lifting the trophy at

the tournament, which will be held in the United States, Mexico

and Canada from June 11 to July 19.

* France were next on 19%, followed by reigning champions

Argentina on 14%, Brazil on 8% and England on 5%, Goldman Sachs ( GS )

said in a research note.

* The bank said its forecast is based mainly on teams' Elo

ratings, a performance-ranking system originally devised for

chess and adapted for football, along with additional factors

including attacking talent, recent momentum, mentality and

geography.

* "Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo

ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the

competition," Goldman Sachs ( GS ) said.

* Argentina's chances were reduced by what the bank called a

"winner's slump" effect, or the tendency of defending champions

to underperform at the following World Cup.

* France's odds were hurt by the likelihood of facing

top-ranked Spain in the semi-finals, while England was marked

down because of what Goldman described as a history of

tournament underperformance, geographical headwinds and a

slightly unfavorable draw.

* Goldman said its projections were broadly in line with

bookmakers' odds, though it assigned England a lower probability

of winning than betting markets did.

* The bank said its model simulates match outcomes using

nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches since 1978 and

would be updated after each day of play during the tournament.

(Reporting by Javier Leira and Gabriel Burin; Writing by Kylie

Madry, Editing by Iñigo Alexander)