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US Dollar Falls Early Tuesday Ahead of Trade, Services Data, Election
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US Dollar Falls Early Tuesday Ahead of Trade, Services Data, Election
Nov 5, 2024 5:13 AM

07:33 AM EST, 11/05/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Tuesday ahead of a series of economic data releases while the presidential election dominates the news cycle.

The results of the election are unlikely to be known with any certainty until Wednesday at the earliest, and perhaps even later, but news networks will be doing their best to project a winner as fast as possible.

Tuesday starts with international trade data for September at 8:30 am ET, followed by weekly Redbook same store sales at 8:55 am ET.

Services data from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management are due to be released at 9:45 am and 10:00 am, respectively, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve is expected to update its gross domestic product growth Nowcast estimate around midday.

While the election will dominate news coverage, financial markets remain attentive to the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting this week.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is currently a 97.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction being priced in for Thursday's announcement at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC policy setting meeting, putting the target range at 4.50% to 4.75%. The chance that the range will be unchanged at a range of 4.75% to 5% is seen at 2.2%.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Tuesday:

EUR/USD rose to 1.0900 from 1.0877 at the Monday US close but was below a level of 1.0913 at the same time Monday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Tuesday's calendar, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at 9:30 am ET, followed by policy board member Isabel Schnabel at 1:30 pm ET. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Dec. 12.

GBP/USD rose to 1.2990 from 1.2954 at the Monday US close and 1.2981 at the same time Monday morning. The UK services' purchasing managers' index declined in October but still indicates expansion, according to data released earlier Tuesday. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Thursday, when a 25 basis point rate reduction is expected.

USD/JPY fell to 152.1039 from 152.1495 at the Monday US close but was above a level of 151.6599 at the same time Monday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Dec. 18-19.

USD/CAD fell to 1.3882 from 1.3902 at the Monday US close and 1.3900 at the same time Monday morning. The Canadian trade balance for September is due to be released at 8:30 am ET. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Dec. 11.

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