*
High-grade and junk bond spreads tighten slightly
post-election
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Investors expect pro-growth policies, including tax cuts
and
higher spending
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Some investors see Trump's trade policy potentially
affecting
future rate cuts
By Matt Tracy
WASHINGTON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Corporate bond market
spreads tightened slightly on Wednesday after Donald Trump's
presidential election victory, as the market weighs the pros and
cons of his return to the White House.
The former president's victory in several highly contested
states pushed him over the 270 Electoral College votes needed to
win the presidency. As of Wednesday afternoon, Republican Trump
had won 292 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris' 224
for the Democrats.
High-grade bond spreads closed Tuesday at 84 basis points, just
one point tighter than their tightest levels for the year,
according to the ICE BofA Corporate Bond Index.
Junk bond spreads ended on Tuesday, before election results, at
286 bps, just six bps away from their tightest levels for the
year, according to the ICE BofA High Yield Index.
These spreads tightened another one to three bps on Wednesday,
said investors, with credit markets pricing in pro-growth
policies such as an extension of 2017 tax cuts, higher
government spending and a potential watering down of an expected
increase in bank regulation when the president-elect takes
office in January.
"Credit spreads were tight coming in, and have only
tightened because the perception coming in, which has now taken
more certainty, is that Trump will be positive for the economy,"
said George Catrambone, head of fixed income, Americas, at DWS
Group.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates another 25 bps at
its next meeting on Thursday.
But some investors see Trump's stated trade policy - including
higher tariffs on China and other countries - as a potential
threat to further rate cuts next year.
"Trump keeps openly telling people that he will increase
tariffs not just on China but with every trade partner," said
Andrzej Skiba, head of BlueBay U.S. fixed income at RBC Global
Asset Management.
"This is a big deal because this could add 1% to inflation.
If you add 1% to next year's inflation numbers, we should say
bye to rate cuts," Skiba said.
A pause in rate cuts could increase financing costs for
corporate borrowers and offset the incentive for greater
acquisition-related debt issuance, which would otherwise stem
from a friendlier merger-and-acquisition environment under
Trump, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at
investment manager Janney Capital Management.
But corporate spreads should remain tight in the coming
weeks, and potentially the rest of 2024, before Trump's
inauguration on Jan. 20.
No investment-grade corporate bond issuance was announced on
Wednesday after Trump's victory. Only one junk bond deal was
announced: a $500-million seven-year note offering by
yearbook-maker Champ Acquisition to refinance existing debt and
pay dividends, which is set to price next week.