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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets fall amid trade uncertainties; focus on rate decisions in Brazil, US this week
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets fall amid trade uncertainties; focus on rate decisions in Brazil, US this week
May 26, 2025 2:25 AM

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Latin American stocks down 1.4% and FX down 0.6%

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Brazil's central bank expected to deliver 50 bps rate hike on Wednesday

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South African rand hits five-week high after Eskom's positive power outlook

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Taiwan's dollar extends two-day historic run

(Updates with afternoon trading levels)

By Medha Singh and Nikhil Sharma

May 5 (Reuters) - Latin American assets fell on Monday as investors continued to face

uncertainties from U.S. trade policies, while central bank decisions in the United States and

Brazil later this week were also in focus.

MSCI's index for Latin American currencies slipped 0.6%, while the MSCI

index for Latin American stocks fell 1.4%, on pace for its worst single day in

nearly a month.

Adding another layer to global trade uncertainties, Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff

on movies produced outside the U.S. but provided no details on how such levies would be

implemented.

"We'll probably see more noise related to the trade war. We have increased uncertainty and

that's the name of the game right now; volatility, uncertainty with some broad positivity and

then followed by downside sentiment," said Andres Abadia, chief LatAm economist at Pantheon

Macroeconomics.

Despite a market-rattling trade war, assets in the region have benefited from a slide in the

dollar and relatively lower U.S. import tariffs for its products.

Taiwan's dollar was a standout among the broader emerging market currencies,

soaring more than 5% in an unprecedented two-session run.

The surge stoked speculations that Taiwan was letting its currency appreciate to win U.S.

trade concessions. But Taiwan President Lai Ching-te called on people not to spread fake stories

about foreign exchange rate talks with the United States.

Brazil's real was down 0.5% as investors awaited the country's central bank's policy

decision on Wednesday, with wider expectations of a 50-basis-point rate hike.

Private economists polled by Brazil's central bank expect monetary easing to start at the

end of 2025, in contrast to most major economies, which are in an easing cycle.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the country has the conditions to grow at an average

pace of 3% per year, which is the goal of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's administration.

The country's main stock index was down 1.2%, with heavyweight state-run oil firm

Petrobras shedding 3.3%. The company said it will lower diesel prices for the third

time this year.

Last Wednesday, Colombia's central bank cut rates in a surprise move. Minutes from the

central bank's meeting last week are set to be released on Tuesday. The Colombian peso

was down 1.1%.

Focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision later this week, with wider

expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold.

Mexico's peso fell 0.5% against the dollar, tracking lower crude prices. President

Claudia Sheinbaum said at a press conference that Mexican officials are set to lay out measures

to strengthen the nation's economy.

The Argentine peso was the worst-performing currency for the day, down 2.5%.

Currencies elsewhere in emerging markets were stronger. The South African rand

scaled its highest levels in five weeks after state utility Eskom said it was optimistic about

the power outlook over the southern hemisphere winter.

The Russian rouble strengthened against the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan, despite

falling oil prices and threats of more Western sanctions.

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned on Monday, a day after a far-right

opposition leader won the first round of the presidential election re-run and his own candidate

crashed out of the race.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Stock indexes Latest Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets 1147.66 1.27

MSCI LatAm 2162.04 -1.39

Brazil Bovespa 133430.5 -1.26

Mexico IPC 55772.05 -0.07

Chile IPSA 8019.53 -0.25

Argentina MerVal 2063317.44 -1.79

Colombia COLCAP 1636.01 -0.36

Currencies Latest Daily % change

Brazil real 5.6869 -0.53

Mexico peso 19.669 -0.53

Chile peso 939.72 0.75

Colombia peso 4300.5 -1.13

Peru sol 3.664 -0.41

Argentina peso (interbank) 1,200.0 -2.13

Argentina peso (parallel) 1,185.0 0

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