* Crude prices climb, but gains capped by shipping optimism
* US labor market data due later this week
* Yield on 2-year note rises after four straight daily
declines
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Shorter-dated U.S. Treasury
yields were mostly higher on Monday, as crude prices rose
following attacks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend and
ahead of a flurry of labor market data later this week.
U.S. crude rose 1.34% to $70.15 a barrel and Brent
rose to $72.77 per barrel, up 1.08% on the day as the
attacks once again threatened a tenuous peace deal, although
expectations of a continued recovery in energy shipping through
the Strait of Hormuz kept gains in check.
Iranian and U.S. technical teams working on the implementation
of an interim peace deal are expected to meet in Doha in the
coming days, a source told Reuters on Monday.
Markets will see a string of data on the labor market this
week, culminating with the release on Thursday of the Labor
Department's monthly payrolls report for June.
Yields have been declining in recent days, as expectations of
easing inflation pressures have grown, offsetting what was seen
as a hawkish Federal Reserve policy announcement and press
conference by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh on June 17.
"The labor market to me is really interesting, the data for
this week, but the key, the focus now is more on the inflation
side," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr
Trust.
"Because energy prices have materially come down, inflation
expectations have notably come down. But the market now,
especially after the Fed meeting, it's not good enough, now they
have to start to see more concrete evidence that inflation's
coming down."
BENCHMARK YIELDS EDGE HIGHER
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
edged up 0.4 basis point to 4.376% after having
fallen for three straight weeks.
Comments from several Fed officials indicated last week that
they were still concerned about high inflation.
The yield on the 30-year bond shed 0.3 basis
point to 4.862%.
Markets are currently pricing in a 29.4% chance of a rate hike
of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's July 28-29 meeting,
according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, and a 61.9% chance at
the September 15-16 meeting.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, rose 1.9 basis points to 4.107% and was on track for its
first daily gain after four straight declines.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 26.7 basis points.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.244% after closing at 2.223% on June 26.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.215%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.