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PCE price index rose 0.2% in July, matching expectations
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Consumer spending rose 0.5% in July
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Market focus shifts towards jobs and labor over inflation
(Updated at 2:17 p.m. ET/1817 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
advanced on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year note set to snap
a two-week streak of declines, after economic data raised
expectations the Federal Reserve was likely to opt for a small
rate cut at its September meeting.
The Commerce Department said the personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, matching
expectations of economists polled by Reuters, after an unrevised
0.1% gain in June. In the 12 months through July, the PCE price
index increased 2.5%, matching June's gain.
"Income and spending were a little better than expected
while inflation was in line with expectations. This can
reinforce the idea that the Fed has stuck the landing," said
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in
Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds
of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.5% last month, also meeting
expectations, after advancing by an unrevised 0.3% in June to
show a strong economy early in the third quarter.
"The market's focus is shifting more towards jobs and labor
rather than inflation. It feels like the market's pretty well
convinced that inflation is moving in the right direction," said
Thomas Urano, co-chief investment officer at Sage Advisory in
Austin, Texas.
"As long as it continues to move in that direction, then the
focus is going to be on growth and in the job market."
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose 3.8
basis points to 3.905%, on track for its fifth straight daily
gain and first weekly rise in three. However, the yield was
still on course for fourth straight monthly decline.
Markets are fully pricing in a rate cut of at least 25 basis
points at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Expectations for a 50
basis point cut dipped to 30.5% after the data, however, from
34% on Thursday, CME's FedWatch Tool showed.
The 30-year bond yield climbed 4.4 basis points
to 4.196%. The yield was set to snap a two-week streak of
declines but was also poised for a fourth straight monthly
drop.
Fed Chair Powell last week flagged the cooling in the labor
market, which signaled a shift in the Fed's focus towards the
job market over fighting inflation.
A survey from the University of Michigan showed consumer
sentiment edged up to 67.9 in August from July's eight-month low
of 66.4, snapping a four-month slide, while inflation is
expected to continue to moderate.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was
at a negative 2 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.2 basis
points to 3.925%. The yield was barely higher on the week but
set for a fourth consecutive monthly decline.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.046% after closing at 2.057% on Aug. 29.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.154%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.