NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
little changed to slightly higher on Friday in choppy trading
after yet another report suggesting that the world's largest
economy is far from slowing down, which is likely to push the
Federal Reserve to hold off cutting interest rates this year.
Volume is thinner than usual ahead of the Memorial Day
holiday on Monday.
Friday's data showed new orders for key U.S.-manufactured
capital goods rose more than expected in April and shipments of
these goods also increased, which indicated that business
spending on equipment picked up early in the second quarter.
Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a
closely-watched proxy for business spending plans, gained 0.3%
last month after an upwardly revised 0.1% dip in March, the
Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast these so-called
capital goods orders edging up 0.1% after declining by a
previously reported 0.2% in March.
Friday's numbers followed equally robust data on Thursday,
which showed that U.S business activity accelerated to its
highest level in more than two years in May and initial jobless
claims dropping in the latest week as labor market tightness
persisted.
In all likelihood, Thierry Albert Wizman, global FX and
rates strategist, at Macquarie in New York said the Fed's dot
plot, or its interest rate forecasts, in the medium to long term
will be higher, citing the central bank's minutes released
earlier this week which said there are potentially inflationary
factors within that time frame.
"What this means is that the market is getting a little bit
worried that even though that we continue to expect that the Fed
will cut, the extent of the easing cycle will not be that
great," Wizman said.
"Maybe we'll get 75 or 100 basis points in cuts and then
we'll kind of level off at 4%. And if that's the case and you
believe that the yield curve will be upward sloping, then we're
going to settle at a 10-year yield of slightly above 4%, or
maybe 4.75% looks better or right in that context."
The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield advanced to a more than
one-week peak of 4.502% and was last marginally up at 4.478
. For the week, the 10-year yield gained 5.9 basis
points (bps), on pace for its biggest weekly gain since
mid-April.
U.S. 30-year yields edged up to 4.583%.
On the shorter end of the curve, the U.S. two-year yield,
which typically reflects rate move expectations, inched up to
4.939%. Earlier in the session, it hit 4.959%,
matching a three-week peak touched on Thursday.
On the week, two-year yields posted an 11.5 basis-point
gain, on track for its largest weekly rise since the week of
April 8.
The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, was little changed from
late on Thursday. The spread between U.S. two- and 10-year
yields, which historically has predicted the onset of recession,
was last at minus 46.3 bps.
That curve widened by as much as minus 47.7 bps on Thursday
following a strong business activity report, the most inverted
since March 12.
Following the durables data, U.S. rate futures priced in one
rate cut of 25 bps in 2024, possibly starting in September or
November, according to LSEG's rate probability app. For the last
few weeks, the futures market had been pricing in two cuts due
the weaker-than-expected economic data.