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FOREX-China GDP gets little cheer, dollar rides 'Trump trade' toward third weekly rise
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FOREX-China GDP gets little cheer, dollar rides 'Trump trade' toward third weekly rise
Oct 17, 2024 7:53 PM

(Updates at 0210 GMT)

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar and

Chinese yuan ticked higher on Friday after China's closely

watched third-quarter growth figures came in slightly better

than forecasts, but kept the pressure on policymakers to roll

out more stimulus quickly.

Elsewhere, the dollar was headed for its third weekly

gain in a row, helped by a dovish European Central Bank and

strong U.S. data that is pushing out expectations for how fast

U.S. rates can fall, particularly if Donald Trump wins the

presidency.

China's economy

expanded

4.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, official

data showed on Friday, but property investment fell more than

10% in the first nine months of the year. Retail sales and

industrial

production picked up in September.

The Aussie, often used as a liquid proxy for

the yuan, rose slightly in the immediate aftermath of the GDP

data release, though it later pared some gains to last trade

0.14% higher at $0.6705.

Reaction in the yuan was largely muted as well, with the

onshore yuan rising about 0.06% in a knee-jerk

reaction. It was last 0.02% higher at 7.1227 per dollar.

The offshore unit last ticked up 0.05% to

7.1330 per dollar, hovering around the same level prior to the

data release.

In other currencies, the euro is down almost

1% for the week so far, has fallen through its 200-day moving

average, and at $1.0834 in Asia trade is parked near a 2-1/2

month low.

On a rolling basis, the dollar's 3.1% three-week gain on the

euro is the sharpest rally since the middle of 2022, and it has

forged to the strong side of 150 yen for the first time since

early August. The greenback last bought 150.05 yen.

On Thursday, data showed U.S. retail sales growth was higher

than expected and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Four sources close to the matter told Reuters the ECB was

likely to cut again in December unless economic data suggests

otherwise.

Meanwhile, markets have been disappointed at the lack of

detail offered by Chinese authorities on plans to revive the

slowing economy, and the yuan is headed for its

largest weekly fall in more than 13 months, despite the GDP

numbers that were slightly ahead of expectations.

"All of that has played in to a stronger dollar," said Jason

Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington.

"There's also been a Trump trade going on in the

background," he said, with the dollar tracking Trump's newfound

lead in election prediction markets, since his tariff and tax

policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high.

The New Zealand dollar was similarly eyeing a

0.8% fall for the week and was little changed at $0.6061 in the

Asia session.

Trump's prospects have also set bitcoin rallying

since his administration is seen as taking a softer line on

cryptocurrency regulation. It was last at $67,845, up more than

10% since Oct. 10. The U.S. goes to the polls on Nov. 5.

In geopolitics, Israel said it had killed Hamas leader Yahya

Sinwar in Gaza, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that

triggered war.

Israel's shekel rose and touched a two-week high

after the news, though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

said fighting would go on and broader markets had little

immediate reaction.

Sterling regained the $1.30 level overnight and

held above that level on Friday, but is also headed for a weekly

loss after a bigger-than-expected drop in British inflation

raised bets the Bank of England might cut interest rates twice

before the end of the year.

British retail sales and U.S. housing starts data are due

later on Friday, as are plans from Japan's largest union group,

Rengo, for the year's wage negotiations. Data showed Japan's

core consumer prices were up 2.4% year-on-year in September, a

bit higher than expected.

The U.S. dollar index hit a 2-1/2 month high of

103.87 on Thursday and is up 0.8% this week.

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