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FOREX-Dollar stirred up by geopolitics, pre-jobs jitters
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FOREX-Dollar stirred up by geopolitics, pre-jobs jitters
Apr 5, 2024 4:55 AM

(Updates prices at 1109 GMT)

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - The dollar headed for its

first weekly loss in a month on Friday, but pulled away from

two-week lows, ahead of a key U.S. jobs report later in the day,

while tensions in the Middle East kept investors on edge.

Demand for safe-haven currencies, along with more warnings

from Japanese authorities, helped send the yen to two-week highs

against the dollar.

Investors are wary of developments in the Middle East after

U.S. President Joe Biden threatened on Thursday to condition

support for Israel's offensive in Gaza on it taking concrete

steps to protect aid workers and civilians.

The dollar has had a turbulent week, falling from a

five-month high to a two-week low after an unexpected slowdown

in U.S. services growth supported expectations of the Federal

Reserve bringing interest rates down.

It then rebounded after comments on Thursday from

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, who is not

a voter on this year's policy-setting committee, that rate cuts

might not be required this year if inflation continues to stall.

Investors have reeled in their expectations of how much the

Fed might cut rates this year, with three quarter-point cuts

being the most likely scenario right now.

But ongoing strength in the economy, along with a sweep

higher in commodity prices, from oil, to copper and to coffee

and cocoa, is complicating the inflation picture.

The dollar index, which measures the performance of

the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last up

0.1% at 104.27.

"There are underlying concerns anyway that the Federal

Reserve may not be able to cut rates three times, as they've

indicated. Any comments from Federal Reserve speakers, whether

they're voters or not, that support that more hawkish stance

does make the market a bit jittery," City Index senior market

strategist Fiona Cincotta said.

"Add to that geopolitical tension and that is also unnerving

the market. The other thing is commodity prices," she said.

Officials including Fed Chair Jerome Powell have reiterated

the need for more debate and data before interest rates drop.

The market is focused on the release of the monthly U.S.

employment report later on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters

are forecasting 200,000 jobs were added in March.

"Markets will likely be sensitive to any surprise in the

jobs data today to assess the path of monetary policy from

here," said Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo.

Meanwhile, Japanese authorities continue to push back

against excessive currency weakness.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday

reiterated the government's resolve to take appropriate action

against sharp yen falls.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank

could "respond with monetary policy" if weakness in the yen

affected the nation's economy in ways that are hard to ignore,

the Asahi newspaper reported on Friday.

Ueda also said inflation would likely accelerate from

"summer toward autumn" as bumper pay hikes push up prices, his

strongest hint yet that another interest rate hike was possible

in coming months.

The yen strengthened to a two-week high of 150.81

against the dollar before paring gains to trade at 151.345.

Japanese authorities will likely intervene in the currency

market to buy the yen if it breaks well below 152 per dollar,

former top currency diplomat Tatsuo Yamazaki said on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the euro was steady at $1.0834,

while sterling eased 0.1% to $1.263.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.6% to

$66,930.

(Additional reporting by Brigid Riley in Tokyo; Editing by

Jamie Freed, David Evans and Chizu Nomiyama)

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