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GLOBAL LNG-Asia spot prices gain amid Russia-Ukraine gas transit concerns
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GLOBAL LNG-Asia spot prices gain amid Russia-Ukraine gas transit concerns
Dec 27, 2024 4:09 AM

SINGAPORE, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied

natural gas (LNG) prices gained this week, the first rise after

three weekly declines, as the imminent expiry of a transit deal

for Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe lent support to

prices.

The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east

Asia was $14.10 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), up 6% from $13.30/mmBtu last week, industry sources

estimated.

Asian LNG prices have gained 20% this year and averaged

$11.97/mmBtu in 2024.

"The biggest thing people are keeping an eye on is TTF's

upward movement," said Masanori Odaka, senior analyst at Rystad

Energy, referring to the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF)

hub.

He added that some industry participants were taking the

expiry of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit contract at the end of

this year as bullish news.

Russian gas supply into Europe could affect prices on the

TTF, which also has an impact on Asia LNG prices.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday there was

no time left this year to sign a new Ukrainian gas transit deal,

and blamed Ukraine for refusing to extend the agreement that

also brings gas to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria.

"The other thing is a cold front potential in the U.S. which

could end in a deep freeze like it did in 2021," Rystad's Odaka

added.

"Asia seems relatively well stocked, so below average to

normal winter will not likely cause China, Korea or Japan to buy

significant volumes in the spot market."

In Europe, delivered prices turned higher this week, mostly

on continued uncertainty about the agreement to continue gas

transit to Europe through Ukraine after the current deal

expires, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at commodity

pricing agency Argus.

"Weak wind generation forecasts in northwest Europe during

the Christmas break and into the weekend also supported

gas-fired generation demand," he added.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West

Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in

February on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $13.76/mmBtu on Dec. 24, a

$0.20/mmBtu discount to the February gas price at the Dutch TTF

hub.

Argus assessed the price at $13.745/mmBtu, while Spark

Commodities assessed the price for January delivery at

$13.753/mmBtu.

The U.S. arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good

Hope for January is still currently closed due to the recent TTF

rally, providing more incentive for U.S. cargos to deliver to

Northwest Europe instead, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim

Afghan.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates held steady at $23,500/day,

while Pacific rates fell to $21,500/day, added Afghan.

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