(Updates prices)
* Oil jumps up to 4% as Gulf tensions disrupt Strait of
Hormuz traffic
* Fed rate hike expectations rise as U.S. inflation data
seen above target
* Dollar strengthens, euro slips as ECB signals vigilance
on energy-driven inflation
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - Stocks slipped from record
highs on Thursday after a fresh U.S. military strike on Iran and
Kuwaiti reports of missile attacks dented investor confidence in
a peace deal that many see as key to easing global inflation
risks.
Oil rose as much as 4% and bond prices tumbled as the escalation
muddied signals on peace talks, after U.S. President Donald
Trump dismissed an Iranian report of a deal to resume traffic
through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Over the next two weeks, we expect either a deal for a new
ceasefire, or the current ceasefire will have collapsed with
active hostilities resuming," said Madison Cartwright, a senior
geo-economics analyst at CBA.
He put a 70% probability on a deal, but said the fate of the
strait remained uncertain.
"Insurance through the strait has become prohibitively
expensive and it's unclear how and at what price insurance will
be made available," he added. "It is also not clear if Iran will
charge a toll, or a toll by another name."
The U.S. military said it had carried out new strikes
targeting an Iranian drone operation, while Tehran said it had
attacked a U.S. airbase in Kuwait.
With transits through the strait still at a trickle, Brent crude
was up 2.7% at $96.8 a barrel. The price has fallen back from
four-year highs above $126 in late April, but remains 33% above
pre-war levels and 50% higher than a year ago.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were up 2 bps at
4.5%, as sustained high oil prices kept upward pressure on
inflation expectations. Euro zone yields also rose,
with Germany's 10-year Bund up 1 bp at 3%.
The developments also cooled this week's tech-led rally in
stock markets that had pushed global indexes to new record
highs.
Europe's STOXX 600 was down 0.8% by midday, but
was still just below February's all-time peak, while U.S. stock
futures were down 0.3% to 0.5%.
INFLATION DATA TO TEST FED
Attention now turns to U.S. personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) data, which includes the Federal Reserve's
preferred inflation measure.
Higher fuel costs are expected to lift the headline PCE to a
three-year high of 3.8%, while core inflation is seen rising
0.3% to an annual 3.3%, well above the Fed's 2% target.
The pick-up has prompted more Fed policymakers to call for
dropping its easing bias, or even preparing for a rate hike.
The shift in Fed expectations has supported the dollar,
which held at 99.506 against a basket of currencies,
steady on the week.
"I know there's an awful lot of dollar bears out there, and
they have been for a while. But there's always a contrarian
story here. And it could just be that the dollar has a bit of a
resurgence now," Trade Nation market strategist David Morrison
said.
The dollar hovered near a four-week high against the yen at
159.4, just below the 160 level that has previously
triggered Japanese intervention.
The euro eased 0.2% to $1.1607 and is on track for a
1.1% monthly fall, though expectations of a June European
Central Bank rate hike offer some support.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday policymakers
must prevent the jump in energy costs feeding into broader
inflation expectations.
In commodities, gold slid 1.5% to $4,390 an ounce,
pressured by a stronger dollar and higher bond yields, which
reduce its appeal as a safe haven.
(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Thomas
Derpinghaus, Mark Potter and Sharon Singleton)