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MORNING BID ASIA-Nervy end to volatile week, yen eyes breakthrough
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MORNING BID ASIA-Nervy end to volatile week, yen eyes breakthrough
Sep 6, 2024 5:27 AM

Sept 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors in Asia close out a choppy week hoping for calm on

Friday but wary that U.S. growth fears are bubbling just under

the surface and that the U.S. economic and policy landscape next

week could be extremely challenging again.

U.S. employment data on Friday, after Asia's close, will set

the tone for world markets up until the Fed announces its

interest rate decision and revised economic projections on Sept.

18.

Investors are on edge.

The MSCI World index and S&P 500 are on course for their

biggest weekly losses since April, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan and

Nikkei 225 are on course for their steepest losses in six weeks,

and Shanghai stocks on Thursday plumbed a fresh seven-month low.

Japan's Nikkei is down 5% this week, and could fall further

if the yen continues to appreciate. The dollar dipped below

143.00 yen on Thursday for the first time since Aug. 5 and

momentum appears to be to the downside.

With a stronger currency in their pocket, Japanese investors

are hoovering up assets overseas. Figures on Thursday showed

that they were net buyers of foreign bonds for a fifth week, and

net buyers of foreign stocks for a third week.

The Fed's policy decision later this month could be the

catalyst for dollar/yen to test 140.00. San Francisco Fed

President Mary Daly told Reuters on Wednesday that interest

rates need to come down, although she didn't say how quickly.

Japanese rates, meanwhile, should continue to rise but at a

pace that ensures volatile markets do not harm businesses, Bank

of Japan board member Hajime Takata said on Thursday.

On the face of it, Fed rate cuts and more BOJ tightening is

a recipe for further yen strength. But a lot is already priced

into the U.S. curve - over 100 basis points of easing this year

and some 225 bps by the end of next year.

Japanese household spending data for July will be released

on Friday, following figures on Thursday that showed real wages

rose in July for a second month. Until June, inflation-adjusted

wages had fallen every month for more than two years.

Strong wage and spending growth will keep the BOJ more

inclined to raise rates again, in turn fueling further yen

upside.

Many other Asian currencies have been on an impressive

upswing in recent weeks too, clawing back most of their losses

for the year or even moving into positive territory

year-to-date.

The Asian calendar is light on Friday, with South Korean

current account figures for August among the few highlights.

Seven countries, including Japan, will release their latest FX

reserves holdings, which at the last count totaled around $3

trillion.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Friday:

- South Korea current account (August)

- Japan household spending (July)

- Japan FX reserves (August)

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