Sept 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets could lose steam on Thursday following a sluggish
performance on Wall Street on Wednesday, and as the sugar high
from China's biggest economic and market stimulus package since
the pandemic earlier in the week shows signs of fading.
Higher U.S. bond yields across the curve and the dollar's
biggest rise in a month should limit investors' risk appetite.
That one-two combo is certainly weighing on the Japanese yen,
which goes into Thursday's session in Asia at a three-week low
near 145.00 per dollar.
The global growth and policy picture is pretty murky too, which
may give investors pause. Weak U.S. consumer confidence figures
have revived doubts about the U.S. "soft landing", while the
euro zone's growth and inflation outlook seems to be softening
by the day.
Economists at HSBC on Wednesday revised their European
Central Bank forecasts, and now expect 25 basis point rate cuts
at every meeting from October until April 2025. That would take
the benchmark deposit rate down to 2.25%.
Weakness in the euro zone should ring alarm bells for China,
given the strength of bilateral trade and financial ties. While
Chinese stocks leapt another 1.5% on Wednesday to a fresh
two-month high, they closed near the lows of the day.
Hong Kong stocks are on a roll - the Hang Seng is up 15% in
just two weeks - and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is its highest
since February 2022. Could both be ready for a time out?
The euro's slide and U.S. bond yield spike, meanwhile,
helped the dollar claw back some ground on Wednesday. Having
earlier flirted with a new 14-month low, the dollar index rose
0.4% to post its biggest daily gain in a month.
The greenback struggled more against emerging market
currencies though, and perhaps the most eye-catching move was by
the Chinese yuan.
It continued its impressive rally of the last couple of
months and rose for a sixth day against the dollar in spot
trading, its longest winning streak since January last year. The
offshore yuan, meanwhile, pierced 7.00 per dollar for the first
time also since January last year.
Indeed, since the one-day burst of global market volatility
on Aug. 5, China's yuan has appreciated more than 3% against the
U.S. dollar, a remarkable run given how tightly Beijing manages
the exchange rate.
Among the Asian economic indicators on deck on Thursday are
manufacturing data from Thailand, industrial production figures
from Singapore, and the latest snapshot of international trade
from Hong Kong.
On the policy side, the Bank of Japan releases minutes of
its July 30-31 policy meeting, and the Reserve Bank of Australia
publishes its Financial Stability Review.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Thursday:
- BOJ minutes from July 30-31 policy meeting
- Singapore industrial production (August)
- Hong Kong trade (August)