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MORNING BID EUROPE-Risk spotlight swings to earnings avalanche
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Risk spotlight swings to earnings avalanche
Nov 3, 2024 1:21 PM

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Kevin Buckland

Earnings are very much front and centre on Tuesday,

particularly with markets mostly treading water as a huge week

of event risk gets underway.

Five of the megacap tech stocks dubbed the "Magnificent 7" -

responsible for powering Wall Street to record peaks this year -

report financial results over the next three days, starting

later today with Google parent Alphabet. Meta and Microsoft

follow on Wednesday, with Amazon and Apple a day later.

Tesla set the tone last week with bold sales forecasts that

sent the stock surging 22% for its biggest rally in a decade.

Analysts, however, are wary of Elon Musk's tendency to

overpromise.

AI poster child Nvidia, which has been vying with Apple for

the mantle of most valuable company in recent days, doesn't

report results until much later in November.

On that theme though, chipmaker results over coming days

will give a feel for how brightly the AI frenzy continues to

burn. AMD reports today, and Intel follows on Thursday.

In Europe, banks hold the spotlight, with HSBC announcing an

additional $3 billion share buyback earlier today, along with an

estimate-topping 10% profit boost. The lender made headlines

last week with a sweeping restructuring and a streamlined

executive committee.

Santander also reports Tuesday, except for its UK arm, which

postponed results while it assesses the impact of a court ruling

on motor finance commissions. UBS is on Wednesday.

While the bank sector is healthier than at any point since

the global financial crisis, investors want reassurance they can

trust longer-term earnings with the European Central Bank

leading its major global peers in cutting rates.

By contrast, the Federal Reserve can take its time easing

policy after a raft of robust economic data, particularly in

employment.

The jobs market has become the Fed's focus, so it's hardly

surprising that the dollar and Treasury yields would pause for

breath near three-month peaks ahead of today's JOLTS job

openings data, a measure favoured by the central bank.

Friday brings the all-important monthly payrolls figures,

setting the stage for the policy decision on Nov. 7. No hints

will be coming from Fed officials who are already in the

blackout period.

The U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 looms as the most

momentous risk event for markets globally this year.

Opinion polls are too close to call, but the momentum in

markets and on some betting platforms is increasingly for a

Republican sweep.

The race has created a lot of uncertainty for businesses, as

reflected in one factory survey.

"Our own election outcome cannot be known soon enough,"

reads one anecdote from the Dallas Fed's manufacturing report,

out overnight. "We have prospective deals of significance on

hold pending who takes office."

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

-HSBC, Santander earnings in Europe

-Alphabet, AMD earnings in US

-US JOLTS (Sep), consumer confidence (Oct)

(Editing by Sam Holmes)

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