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TREASURIES-Yields spike as Trump offers no respite for inflation fears
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TREASURIES-Yields spike as Trump offers no respite for inflation fears
Apr 1, 2026 10:30 PM

SYDNEY, April 2 (Reuters) - Treasury yields were jerked

higher in Asia on Thursday as dashed hopes for an early end to

the Gulf war sent oil prices flying and fanned fears the

resulting inflation would close the door to any prospect of

easier monetary policy.

Yields on 10-year notes climbed 5 basis points

to 4.376% after President Donald Trump offered little clarity on

when the conflict might wind down and, crucially, waved off any

responsibility for reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz.

A resulting 6% jump in Brent futures saw the market

take out another 6 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts

for this year. No easing is now expected, compared to 50

basis points of cuts before the war began.

"The only thing that really matters is whether the Strait of

Hormuz will open soon," said Prashant Newnaha, a senior rates

strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. "Trump's speech

doesn't imply this is likely to happen as quickly as the markets

were expecting."

"Further, the risk of additional upstream counterattacks

implies the strait is likely to be shut for at least another

month and beyond that is anybody's guess."

The near closure of the strait has thrown a spanner in the

works of global supply chains for a host of products from

petrol, to gas, jet fuel, fertilisers, chemicals, aluminum,

pharmaceuticals and even cement.

The inflationary wave is already being felt with gasoline

topping $4 a gallon in some U.S. states and the wider effect

still to be felt.

A closely watched survey of manufacturing out on Wednesday

showed its measure of prices paid had shot up 19 points in just

two months to reach levels typically consistent with annual

inflation running at 4%.

The jump in inflation will make it harder for the Fed to

countenance a cut in rates even as rising energy costs act as a

tax on consumers, and a drag on domestic demand.

That risk saw two-year yields rise 5 basis

points on Thursday to 3.856%, leaving them 48 basis points

higher than when the conflict started.

Much now depends on the March payrolls report where jobs are

expected to bounce by 60,000 after February's dire reading.

"A rebound in job creation will likely see market pricing

shift materially in favour of a Fed hike, or two, as has been

the case elsewhere across the developed world," wrote analysts

at Westpac in a note.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)

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