* First-week options straddles gain average 23%, ORATS data
shows
* Comparable first-week strategy posted average 2% loss over
previous 12 quarters, ORATS says
* Fourth-week straddles lost average 6% versus historical
average 5% loss, ORATS says
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Larger-than-usual post-earnings
stock swings by AI and hyperscaler companies this earnings
season have upended a historical pattern in which smaller
companies' results typically drive the larger stock moves, data
from options analytics service ORATS showed.
The first few weeks of earnings seasons are typically
dominated by major market leaders, including financial giants
like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, early-reporting Dow Jones
blue chips, and mega-cap tech powerhouses like Apple, Microsoft,
Alphabet, and Meta. Smaller companies in the index take center
stage in later weeks.
Thinner liquidity, smaller floats, less institutional
ownership and sparser analyst coverage relative to larger
companies combine to make small-cap earnings reactions typically
larger in magnitude than those of mega-caps.
Not so this time.
"The smaller companies in recent weeks have had more muted
earnings moves - a contrast to the early weeks when AI and
hyperscalers' reports helped drive larger-than-usual moves,"
ORATS founder Matt Amberson said.
Some of the largest hyperscalers, including Amazon,
Microsoft, Google and Meta, have produced big post-earnings
stock swings, surpassing their respective average moves in past
quarters, as investors aggressively cheered or sold off shares
depending on whether AI capital expenditures appeared to be
paying off.
For companies reporting in the first week of the
second-quarter earnings season, which kicked off in mid-July,
buying options straddles - a strategy combining the purchase of
a put and a call - fetched the largest average gains, with
profits shrinking in weeks two through four, ORATS data showed.
Week one gains averaged 23%, compared with an average loss
of 2% for the strategy in the first week of earnings over the
last 12 quarters, the ORATS analysis showed. In contrast, for
the fourth week of results, the strategy produced an average
loss of 6% compared with the historical average of a loss of 5%.