08:02 AM EDT, 05/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- In the initial vote in parliament on Tuesday, Friedrich Merz fell short of the required absolute majority of 316 votes to be elected as the new German prime minister, noted Berenberg.

With 310 votes in favor, 307 against -- and 3 abstentions as well as 1 invalid ballot -- he didn't get the full support of the parties (CDU/CSU and SPD) that have agreed to form a coalition with him as PM, said the bank. As the two parties have 328 out of 630 seats in the Bundestag, it means that at least five members of the coalition parties voted against him in the secret ballot.

Further rounds can be held within 14 days with the same rules -- at least 316 out of 630 members of parliament have to vote in favor of a PM in a secret ballot. After a simple majority --more yes than no votes -- would suffice.

When exactly a second round of votes will be held is still unclear. All parliamentary factions would have to agree to an accelerated schedule for parliament to hold a second vote before Friday. The opposition AfD has signalled support for allowing a second vote on Wednesday.

Merz will most likely still be elected as prime minister in the end, stated Berenberg. But even so, the unprecedented failure to be elected in the first round would still be a bad start for him.

It shows that he cannot fully rely on his two coalition parties. That will sow some doubts about his ability to fully pursue his agenda, damaging his domestic and international authority at least initially, pointed out the bank.

However, Berenberg put the bad surprise into context:

-- The old parliament had already passed the change to the debt brake in the constitution. The extra fiscal space exists. Of course, it takes a government to make the actual spending decisions. Tuesday's upset will probably not affect the way in which the additional money for defense and infrastructure is allocated in a major way.

-- Most normal laws in parliament aren't done in secret votes -- and only require a simple majority of the votes cast, rather than an absolute majority, to pass. That could prevent some of those from the coalition who didn't vote for Merz Tuesday from voting down laws of a Merz government. Once elected, a Merz government would most likely still be able to implement its agenda in the end.