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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada
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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada
Feb 12, 2025 4:53 AM

07:30 AM EST, 02/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's light data flow continues on Wednesday, noted Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Investors will hear from the Bank of Canada. The Summary of Deliberations from the BoC's Jan. 29 policy meeting will be published at 1:30 p.m. ET Wednesday and it will be scrutinized for two things, said the bank.

First, with the threat of United States tariffs still hanging over Canada, markets will be looking for any additional insight into the BoC's reaction function. The Monetary Policy Report provided some reasonable scenario analysis, but Governor Tiff Macklem left the timing and extent of any potential policy reaction somewhat ambiguous.

Still, the BoC opting to deliver a risk management 25bps cut suggests that the growth hit will be the first priority, though inflation risks will limit how far it's willing to ease, stated BMO.

The bank will also be looking for insight into whether the BoC's seemingly neutral tone will persist if U.S. tariffs don't materialize. Indeed, Governor Macklem sounded ready to pause absent tariffs to allow time to assess the data and the state of economic momentum into year-end.

While more information on the above would be ideal, given the tariff-driven uncertainty, the deliberations likely won't provide a clear narrative, pointed out the bank.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) starts the day right on the 70 U.S. cent mark (1.429/USD), with little response to the announced US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, added BMO. The tariffs are slated to kick in on March 12 so, as in 2018, importers will likely get busy building inventories.

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