07:40 AM EDT, 05/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release manufacturing shipments for March at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, noted Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Manufacturers' shipments are expected to fall 1.9% month over month in March as new United States tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect, said the bank.

At 9 a.m. ET Thursday, existing home sales may have edged up in April but likely remained about 12% below year-ago levels, while benchmark prices look to fall 3% year over year, stated BMO. Much of the weakness is in Ontario and British Columbia, where concerns about losing your job in a trade war are coupled with concerns about large mortgage payments on still-pricey homes.

Prior to the sales report, at 8:15 a.m. ET, housing starts are expected to rebound 5% month over month to 225,000 annualized units in April, added the bank. Starts are trending lower due to weak sales and immigration curbs, but remain close to past-decade norms.

The province of Ontario tables its budget later on Thursday. Given a softer economic outlook, and trade-war-related support/stimulus promises, BMO looked for a wider deficit -- it was last pegged at just $1.5 billion for FY25/26 -- and a longer path back to balance. That fits the mold set by most provinces this year.