08:01 AM EDT, 10/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Geopolitical risks persist, but markets -- including foreign exchange -- have largely overlooked them, said UBS.

The Russia-Ukraine war continues, yet unless secondary sanctions sharply limit Russian oil and natural gas supplies, the market impact should remain muted, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

However, a genuine energy supply shock could trigger oil price spikes and market volatility, stated UBS.

In such risk-off scenarios, "safehaven" currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF), US dollar (USD), Chinese yuan (CNY) and yen (JPY) would likely benefit, while commodity exporters .-- such as the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie), Norway's krone (NOK), Australian dollar (AUD), Brazilian real (BRL) could initially weaken but may offer buying opportunities on dips.