02:20 PM EDT, 07/12/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC's Avery Shenfeld said while a weakening job market gives the Bank of Canada ample reason to cut rates in July, on the growth front, retail data for May due next Friday are "likely to look sluggish".

To that end, Shenfeld added, the BoC will pay close heed to two key data releases next week in terms of their news on inflation. Topping that list is the June CPI due on Tuesday, when a "cooling back" to 0.2% increases in the two core measures would make the May results look more like a one-off blip.

And while the CIBC team are not big fans of the BoC's Business Outlook Survey due to its small and varying list of respondents, Shenfeld said the central bank will take some comfort on Monday if business outlooks for wages, costs and prices don't pick up or even ease off further, after cooling in the prior survey. He added: "An improvement in business or consumer outlooks for growth wouldn't stand in the way of a rate cut, since that can include the benefits of anticipated rate cuts ahead."

(The CIBC data calendar also notes: Manufacturing Shipments and Wholesale Sales Ex Petroleum data for May are both due Monday; while May Int'l Securities Transactions data is due Wednesday; and both Industrial Product Prices and Raw Materials data for June is due Friday.)

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