02:05 PM EDT, 08/23/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Q2 GDP due out next Friday looks to come in just under 2%, but a flat monthly reading for June would pose a "poor" handoff for Q3, and a challenge to the Bank of Canada's forecast for an acceleration in that quarter, according to Avery Shenfeld over at CIBC.

CIBC sees Q3 growth as in the 1.5% range, assuming that the Labour Minister's actions yesterday do bring a quick end to the labour disruptions in the rail sector. Shenfeld noted "that's not yet a given", as the union is retaining picket lines at one of the two companies, and could issue a court challenge over whether the Minister can force them back to work without legislative action by Parliament. So, he said, we'll still be watching developments on that front in the coming days.

While a bit dated, payrolls data for June due on Thursday will provide a second look at labour markets as a supplement to what we've already seen in the household survey, Shenfeld noted.

(The CIBC data calendar notes Q2 Current Account data is also due out Thursday.)

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