(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Peter Apps

July 31 (Reuters) - On the first day of the Farnborough

airshow last week, an unusual-looking craft with upward-pointing

propellers along its wings rose into the sky from the main

runway: the new electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL)

lightweight "air taxi" from Britain's Vertical Aerospace ( EVTWF ).

The Farnborough show and accompanying military and civilian

aviation trade event, which take place every other year, have

long showcased a mix of breakthroughs, breathlessly announced

sales of existing aircraft types and a look into the future.

This year, however, there was a greater sense of urgency and

an increasingly dramatic pace of change, fuelled by new

developments in materials and power storage, chips and

artificial intelligence alongside deteriorating geopolitical

relations.

Vertical Aerospace's ( EVTWF ) first public takeoff flight of its "air

taxi" is a case in point. Without huge leaps forward in battery

power, electric motors and other airframe elements, it would be

unable to get airborne - let alone achieve its claimed 100-mile

(160-km)-plus flying range.

Despite those developments, it and other companies struggled

to find investment in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the company says it has since received millions in backing

from the British government, reporting interest in using the

aircraft for the military, particularly special forces.

Demand for new aircraft has rebounded from a dip during the

pandemic in 2020 and many aviation and associated manufacturing

firms are racing to keep up, particularly if they can deliver

capabilities sought by militaries facing rising tensions in

Europe and the Pacific and war in Ukraine and the Gulf.

"Defence was about 30% of our business only a few years back

and now it's more than 50%," said Matthew Pritchard, vice

president for sales and customer engagement at Ontic, which

supplies equipment to multiple major aviation manufacturers as

well as maintenance and repair services.

"But across the board, the sector is struggling to keep up

with demand. During the pandemic a lot of people left the

industry, facilities were shut down. We are still coming back

from that."

The result brings several paradoxes: major aviation

manufacturers, particularly Boeing ( BA ) and Airbus, now have multiple

years of orders for airliner types dating back several decades.

Older jet fighters such as the 1990s-era Eurofighter and

Lockheed Martin F-16 are also seeing ongoing and often rising

sales on the back of growing tensions.

Simultaneously, other new technology is leaping forward.

Dutch company Robin Radar Systems - which started out building

small airport radars to detect flocks of birds but has since

moved into anti-drone technology - was just one of several that

told this columnist their firms were undergoing very rapid

growth.

In total, Farnborough recorded almost $85 billion in deals,

both military and civilian - plus a host of announcements from

missile manufacturers Lockheed Martin ( LMT ), Raytheon and European

conglomerate MBDA aimed at driving down the cost of delivering

air defence and strike missiles.

LEARNING IN REAL TIME

With the U.S. now racing to replace now heavily depleted

stocks of high-tech long-range and air defence missiles such as

the Tomahawk and Patriot, the show included a large number of

firms offering more "affordable" one-way strike missiles as well

as long-term reusable drones.

"We are literally learning in real time," said former RAF

Typhoon jet fighter pilot Andrew Hawkes, now leading the

European rollout of defence tech firm Shield AI's stealth

vertical takeoff X Bat drone, describing the "evolving threat

environment" as a key driver of developments.

Shield AI - founded in 2015 by former U.S. Navy SEAL Brandon

Tseng - is already operating its non-stealth V-Bat in Ukraine

and other combat zones. The company says the new X-Bat will fly

for the first time before the end of the year under the control

of an autonomous AI pilot, and, when operational, will be able

to carry all the same weapons as a much more expensive U.S.-made

piloted F-35 for a fraction of the cost.

While the basic engine for the X-Bat is one that has been

fitted for years to U.S. fighters such as the F-15 Eagle, the

drone benefits from new composite materials and a dramatic

reduction in the weight of the computing power required for the

on-board AI systems.

Other projects can still take years to move from the design

screen to production. Some of the largest announcements in

Farnborough this year related to the Anglo-Italian-Japanese

Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), intended to deliver a new

"sixth-generation" stealth fighter into service by 2035.

Such a delivery schedule for a major new combat aircraft is

a big acceleration from the most recent generation of equivalent

aircraft such as the U.S. F-35, which began its design life in

the 1990s and only entered service this decade.

With European and Pacific nations increasingly nervous over

the long-term commitment of the U.S. to their defence, that

collaboration is also seen as increasingly important by its

member nations - with Canada announcing last week that it was

also joining GCAP as an observer.

Under U.S. President Donald Trump, Washington has pledged

that it will not export its own equivalent fighter, the

Boeing ( BA )-manufactured F-47 - the number a reference to Trump as

the 47th president - which is slated to fly for the first time

in 2028.

The wars in Ukraine and now the Gulf have supercharged demand

for new military tech. Design processes increasingly take

advantage of lessons from Ukraine, where engineers say they face

a constant battle to stay ahead of new forms of Russian jamming

including against Elon Musk's Starlink system that had been key

to the operation of multiple drone types.

MANUFACTURING REVOLUTION

Some - like the Australian-designed "Ghost Bat" also

displayed near the runway in Farnborough - have been produced by

major aviation firms like Boeing ( BA ). U.S. drone firm General

Atomics - designer of the Predator, Reaper and several other

types heavily used worldwide - is also working on an unmanned

stealth plane to operate alongside mainstream military aircraft.

Others, however, come from new entrants in the market. At

Farnborough, fast-growing autonomous weapons maker Anduril

unveiled its new autonomous twin-rotor vertical takeoff Thunder

drone; it is designed to operate at low altitude over a highly

contested battlefield and both replace and augment existing

high-tech attack helicopters alongside other cheaper drones.

Horizon Aircraft, a Canadian startup that appears roughly a

year behind its unrelated UK counterpart Vertical Aerospace ( EVTWF ),

also credits material and battery breakthroughs with allowing

the development of its own manned vertical takeoff aircraft.

"Manufacturing technology has come pretty far in the

composite space, led by Formula One and other aerospace folks,"

said Phil Kelly, senior vice president for business development

and another former British jet pilot. "That allows us to build

lighter, stronger."

As with the slightly smaller Vertical Aerospace ( EVTWF ) "air taxi",

Horizon's aircraft uses electric rotors in the wings powered by

batteries distributed across the aircraft to lift into the air -

but it then uses the less expensive conventional aviation fuel

to power a rear propeller to fly horizontally.

The firm hopes to have its first full-size prototype

conducting test flights within the next nine months, with each

costing roughly the same as a civilian helicopter with hugely

greater range.

While few if any of the aircraft on display at Farnborough

this year have been predominantly designed through artificial

intelligence, engineers there said AI processes could

considerably speed both computer model testing and regulatory

processes.

For now, more traditional aircraft are still selling well.

According to analysis from RBC Capital Markets, Airbus and

Boeing ( BA ) between them received more than 1,200 combined orders for

commercial aircraft in the first half of 2026, well up from the

2022-2025 average of just under 1,000.

Whether that civilian boom can survive rising energy prices

and disruption from international tensions is another question.

Either way, the world is headed fast into uncharted waters, and

that will bring the global aviation sector - like the rest of us

- as much risk as opportunity.

(Editing by Philippa Fletcher)