LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S President Donald Trump's

minerals deal with Ukraine is a big symbolic win for both sides.

Ukraine gets a long-term commitment for U.S. investment in

"a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine". The United States gets

a stake in Ukraine's future resource potential. And Trump gets

to prove that he is, to quote White House spokeswoman Karoline

Leavitt, "the great deal maker".

Just don't expect a Ukrainian critical minerals rush soon.

Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, posted on

X that she does not expect the jointly-owned Reconstruction

Investment Fund to pay out any dividends in the first 10 years.

DON'T MENTION THE RARE EARTHS

At least everyone has stopped calling it the rare earths

deal. The agreement covers all sub-soil resources, including

oil, gas and a wide spectrum of metals.

Ukraine has a couple of rare earth deposits, which is not

surprising given the size of the country and that rare earths

are not as rare as their name suggests.

Deposits that are viable economically and technically are

relatively unusual and how promising Ukraine's are is unclear.

Even the best-mapped Novopoltavske field was last surveyed

in 1982-1991. It is also inconveniently located just north of

Chernihiv in Zaporizhzhia province, which is the wrong side of

the front line from a Ukrainian point of view.

So are two of the touted lithium projects. Indeed, about 40%

of Ukraine's metal resources are under Russian occupation,

according to estimates by Ukrainian think tanks We Build Ukraine

and the National Institute of Strategic Studies.

Unlocking the full value of the minerals deal will be

impossible without a definitive peace and reconciliation of

Ukraine's and Russia's competing territorial claims.

LONG ROAD FROM MINE TO MARKET

Ukraine has other lithium deposits and also hosts reserves

of critical minerals such as uranium, titanium and graphite.

But since existing production facilities are not included in

the deal and many have been closed since the start of the war

anyway, Ukraine will be building a minerals production chain

from scratch.

That is a long journey.

The challenge with many of the metals on everyone's critical

raw materials list is not getting them out of the ground,

although that can be capital-intensive enough, but in refining

them into high-purity products ready for the manufacturing

process.

Rare earths' separation and processing is notoriously tricky

and dominated by Chinese operators, which is another reason why

no-one's calling it the rare earths deal any more.

Mined uranium also needs to be enriched before it can be fed

into a nuclear power plant and titanium ore needs to be

processed into aviation-grade alloy before it can be used to

build aircraft.

It's an inconvenient truth that Russia is one of the world's

largest titanium processors and accounted for 27% of the

enriched uranium supplied to U.S. commercial reactors in 2023.

Russia, however, is explicitly excluded from benefiting from

the reconstruction of Ukraine.

PRICE PROTECTION

Market price is another problem.

Ukraine's graphite deposits are both on the right side of

the front line and relatively well mapped. The Balakhivske

project is at the feasibility study stage, according to the

Ukrainian Geological Survey.

There is a ready European market for the material needed for

the anode in electric vehicle batteries.

But will mining it in Ukraine be economically viable?

Canadian miner Northern Graphite ( NGPHF ), the only producer

in North America, has announced it is putting its Quebec plant

on care and maintenance due to a 50% collapse in the graphite

price.

China controls 70% of the global supply chain and can exert

huge influence over pricing, in this case flooding the market to

undermine potential competitors.

The West's lithium ambitions are being similarly stymied by

Chinese over-supply and rock-bottom market prices.

Ukraine will find that private investment will need

government help to shield start-ups from price turbulence.

The United States has already understood the need for direct

federal action. The Department of Defense is a strategic

investor in a domestic rare earths processing project being led

by Australia's Lynas Rare Earths ( LYSCF ).

STAKING THE METALLIC FUTURE

This minerals deal is clearly going to come with a long

repayment schedule.

But it is a sign of the times. As the world transitions from

a fossil fuel economy to a metallic future, minerals have become

the new geopolitical currency.

In this new world order China is the dominant incumbent and

the West the challenger.

The United States has just made a strategic move in the

great global minerals game. It will not be the last.

Next up is the Democratic Republic of Congo, where another

minerals-for-security deal is on the table.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.

(Editing by Barbara Lewis)