05:55 AM EDT, 07/02/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Tuesday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries (UST) stabilize in late New York and Asia. E-minis are softer. EUR trades sideways, Japan's yen (JPY) is near a historic high. Oil remains supported with Brent at a two-month high.

US: President Joe Biden warns former President Donald Trump immunity ruling is "dangerous precedent" undermining the rule of law. RealClear betting average for Trump rose to a record high of 55.5% after the ruling. Democrats push to formally nominate Biden as early as July to tamp out replacement talk or open convention (Bloomberg).

US: Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 1.73% from 2.25% for Q2, below the consensus forecast of 2%.

== EUROPE:

ECB: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says "it will take time" to gather sufficient data to be certain that inflation risks have passed (Sintra opening speech). Governing Council (GC) member Pierre Wunsch says "first two rate cuts are relatively easy as long as inflation hovers around 2.5% because we will still clearly be restrictive", but strong indications of move to 2% are needed to cut further. Gediminas Simkus says "two more cuts this year are in line with my own thinking," case for the July cut hasn't gone. GC member Martins Kazaks sees market view of one to two rate cuts consistent with baseline, and inflation to move sideways until late 2024.

Netherlands: HICP rose to 3.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y.

France: Around 160 of the third-placed candidates in the parliamentary election have already withdrawn (Le Monde). President Emmanuel Macron's pact with left could apply to LFI candidates on a case-by-case basis (Reuters).

UK: BRC shop prices fall to 0.2% y/y while consensus was 0.5%, the lowest since 2021.

== ASIA:

Japan: Finance Minister ShunichiSuzuki says foreign exchange rates are set in fiancial markets.