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Commerzbank on Overnight News
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Commerzbank on Overnight News
Oct 11, 2024 3:54 AM

06:32 AM EDT, 10/11/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Friday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries recover into New York close after strong 30-year auction, rangebound in Asia. France's OAT futures also supported. Asian equities mixed, e-minis stable. USD, oil little changed.

Fed: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is "totally comfortable" with skipping a rate cut in November or December if data "comes in as I expect." Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin says inflation is still headed in the "right direction," but "wouldn't declare victory." Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams argues for a return to neutral "over time" now that risks to inflation and employment goals are more balanced. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Austan Goolsbee sees an "overall trend" for inflation over the next 12-18 months still clearly moving down.

== EUROPE:

ECB: Bloomberg survey sees the European Central Bank's depo rate to fall to 2.5% by March and 2% by December 2025. The majority sees downside risks for 2024 and 2025 gross domestic product and inflation projections.

France to sell record 300 billion euros in OATs net of buybacks next year, raises BTF issuance to fund higher deficit this year. Insee forecasts GDP growth of 1.1% for 2024.

Germany: Finance Minister Christian Lindner wants to increase the 2025 budget deficit by five billion euros to 56.5 billion euros, Spiegel reports -- no surprise after this week's GDP downgrade.

Germany: CDU slips 2pts to 31%, SPD and Greens gain. 55% think CDU chief Friedrich Merz wouldn't be a good prime minister (current PM Olaf Scholz at 69%) (ARD).

Portugal targets a budget surplus of 0.3% for 2025.

UK: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is considering a capital gains tax of up to 39% (Guardian).

== ASIA:

China will address market concerns in a timely manner, wants to increase macro-control efforts (NDRC).

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