July 23 (Reuters) - It may take a little more time for
ether to edge out of bitcoin's shadow.
Investors are more cautious and divided ahead of the U.S.
launch of exchange-traded funds tied to ether's spot
price on Tuesday, presenting a contrast to the general euphoria
that preceded the arrival of ETFs linked to bitcoin.
"It will be less of an event than people are making it seem
to be," said Nathan Gauvin, CEO of asset manager Gray Digital
and $2 billion hedge fund Blackridge Investment Management.
Trading in the ETFs issued by nine asset managers led by
BlackRock ( BLK ), VanEck, and Franklin Templeton on
U.S. trading platforms comes six months after bitcoin ETFs
debuted in January.
The consensus forecast is for ether ETFs to attract about
25% of bitcoin's flows, though Steven McClurg, head of U.S.
asset management at CoinShares estimated it at just 10%.
A major issue for some investors is the SEC's exclusion of
the "staking" mechanism, a key feature on the Ethereum
blockchain which releases ether, the world's second-largest
cryptocurrency after bitcoin.
Staking allows Ethereum users to earn rewards by locking up
their ether to help secure the network. The rewards or yield
come in the form of freshly-minted ether tokens and parts of
network transaction fees.
The annual percentage yield on staking Ethereum was around
3.12% as of July 22, according to StakingRewards.com. Staking is
appealing because it enhances returns.
As currently constructed, the SEC will only allow the ETFs
to hold regular, unstaked ether.
"An institutional investor looking at ether knows that there
are yields to be had," said CoinShares' McClurg. "It's like a
bond manager saying I will buy the bond, but I don't want the
coupon, which is counter to what you're doing when you're buying
bonds."
The SEC believes staking in exchange for tokens is
considered an investment contract, which requires disclosures
and safeguards under U.S. securities laws.
McClurg believes investors will continue to stake ether
outside an ETF and earn a yield as opposed to paying fees and
holding it in an ETF.
He said CoinShares, which oversees more than $6 billion in
assets, is going to wait and see how this all pans out. "We made
a conscious decision not to get involved in this round for an
ETF that's not staked."
Gray Digital's Gauvin thinks staking will eventually be
included in the ETF sometime next year. "But this is a midpoint
to get there." The firm is also not participating in this
launch, but will watch it closely.
'LIKE A STOCK WITH NO DIVIDEND'
Chanchal Smadder, ETC Group's head of product, echoed
comments from CoinShares' McClurg, saying holding the ETF
without the staking yield is "like owning a stock and not having
the right to the dividend."
ETC, with $1.4 billion in assets, is Germany's first issuer
of crypto exchange-traded products (ETP), which are similar to
ETFs. It has both staked and unstaked ether ETPs totaling $150
million.
Demand for staked ether ETPs is higher than the unstaked
ones, Smadder said, with the staked fund getting $51 million in
inflows so far this year, while the unstaked saw outflows of $95
million.
Smadder did point out, though, that illiquidity is a risk
when staking ether with validators or stakers having to queue to
withdraw their staked ether. The processing time to complete the
exit queue could sometimes take eight to nine days, he said.
"With unstaked, the ether is unlocked and available at all
times."
Nana Murugesan, president of Matter Labs, a research and
development company that helps scale Ethereum, said the ether
ETFs launch was less about staking, but more a "watershed
moment" in crypto.
The more important thing, Murugesan said, is investors'
access to a blockchain underpinning multiple applications. "As
Ethereum and its adoption grow, the ETF's value also grows with
all the network effects."
Overall, investors agree that ether flows are unlikely to
come close to those bitcoin ETFs captured in the first week of
trading, given ether's smaller market capitalization of $424
billion, compared with bitcoin's $1.4 trillion.
Bitcoin ETFs drew nearly $7 billion in assets in their first
three weeks of trading, Morningstar Direct data showed. As of
end-June, the ETFs had attracted a net $33.1 billion in inflows.