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EXPLAINER-Is it the end for Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine?
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EXPLAINER-Is it the end for Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine?
Aug 12, 2024 5:15 AM

MOSCOW, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Russia is still pumping

natural gas to Europe via the war zone in Ukraine. Why?

WHERE DOES THE PIPE GO?

The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas

from western Siberia via Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region. It

then flows through Ukraine in the direction of Slovakia.

In Slovakia, the gas pipeline is divided, one of the

branches goes to the Czech Republic, the other to Austria. The

main buyers of gas are Hungary, Slovakia and Austria.

About 14.65 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas was supplied

via Sudzha in 2023, or about half of Russian natural gas exports

to Europe. EU gas consumption fell to 295 bcm in 2023.

Sudzha, just over the border from Ukraine, is the focus of

intense battles between Ukrainian and Russian forces. It is

unclear who controls the town.

Gazprom's gas metering point Sudzha is located a few miles

out of the town, closer to Russian-Ukraininan border.

Russia's Gazprom said it would send 39.6 million cubic

metres(mcm) of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Monday compared to

39.3 mcm on Sunday.

HOW MUCH DOES RUSSIAN SUPPLY TO THE EU?

Russia used to supply a little under half of the European

Union's gas before the 2022 Ukraine war. But Europe has turned

away from Russian gas while as yet unexplained attacks on the

Nord Stream pipeline have reduced Russian supplies.

Russian gas has been replaced by liquefied natural gas (LNG)

imports: the United States has increased its slice of the EU gas

market to 56.2 bcm in 2023 from 18.9 bcm in 2021 while Norway

grew its share to 87.7 in 2023 from 79.5 bcm in 2021. Other

suppliers were North African countries, Britain and Qatar.

No one has taken responsibility for the September 2022 Nord

Stream blasts, which occurred off the Danish island of Bornholm

and ruptured three out of four lines of the system that delivers

Russian gas to Europe.

Russia says that the United States and Britain were behind

the blasts but has presented not evidence. The New York Times ( NYT )

and The Washington Post have reported that Ukraine - which has

repeatedly denied involvement, was behind the attack.

Russia supplied a total of around 63.8 bcm of gas to Europe

by various routes in 2022, according to Gazprom data and Reuters

calculations. That volume decreased, by 55.6%, to 28.3 bcm last

year.

At their peak in 2018-2019, annual flows to the European

region reached between 175 bcm and 180 bcm.

WHY DOES RUSSIA STILL SEND GAS VIA UKRAINE?

About half of Russia's natural gas exports to Europe go

through Ukraine.

The main reasons are money and history.

Gazprom, which holds about 16% of global gas reserves and

employs nearly half a million people, was once one of Russia's

most powerful corporate empires - so powerful it was known as "a

state within the state".

But it has fallen on hard times due to the loss of the

European gas market.

The company plunged to a net loss of 629 billion roubles in

2023, its first annual loss in more than 20 years, amid

dwindling gas trade with Europe, once its main sales market.

Ukraine, once an integral part of the Soviet Union, also

earns money from the transit.

WILL THE TRANSIT CONTINUE?

In December 2019, Moscow and Kyiv signed a long-term

five-year agreement for the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine:

45 bcm in 2020 and 40 bcm per year in 2021-2024. The agreement

on Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukraine expires in

2024, and Kyiv has said it has no intention of extending it or

concluding a new deal.

Russia is ready to continue gas supplies to Europe via

Ukraine after the current transit agreement expires at the end

of 2024, Russian state news agencies reported last month, citing

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

In May 2022, Ukraine stopped receiving transit gas through

the Sokhranovka station with a capacity of 30 million cubic

meters per day, citing force majeure and proposing to transfer

all transit volumes to Sudzha.

The only other operational pipeline route to Europe is

Turkstream under the Black Sea.

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