LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Another batch of
closely-anticipated U.S. jobs data, a high-level gathering in
China, political upset in France and a blockbuster trial in
Brazil are coming up.
It's time to catch up with that post-summer read in.
Here's your week ahead in global markets by Lewis Krauskopf
in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore and Anousha Sakoui, Dhara
Ranasinghe and Marc Jones in London.
1/ WORK DISPUTE
The next U.S. jobs report on September 5 could cement
expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut.
The August non-farm payrolls report is expected to show growth
of 78,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll, versus 73,000 for
July.
Last month's weak report, which included huge downward
revisions for the prior two months, heightened market
expectations the Fed will ease rates in September.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to support those expectations
at his Jackson Hole speech, saying that risks to the job market
were rising.
The jobs data coincides with wariness about threats to the Fed
independence after President Donald Trump set about trying to
fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
2/ POWER PLAY
Over 20 world leaders gather at a regional security forum in
China come Sunday, in a powerful show of solidarity when Trump
is seeking to double down on his vision of U.S. supremacy.
Russia's Vladimir Putin, welcomed back onto the world stage by
Trump in August, joins the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
summit in Tanjin. The event also marks the first visit to China
by India's Narendra Modi in over seven years.
Days later, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un at Beijing's "Victory Day" parade.
Markets should pay attention as Xi looks to position China as a
global force in a shifting geopolitical landscape. China has
increased deployments around Taiwan and the disputed South China
Sea.
Another round of China PMI releases meanwhile is expected to
show the economy continues to struggle.
3/ BACK TO SCHOOL
Pack away the beach towels and stow the deck chairs, summer
(in most places) is over. Markets sense it too.
In a foretaste of the pick-up in activity in September, French
markets sold off this week on political turbulence and the
Treasury curve steepened after Trump said he would fire Cook.
France's Prime Minister, trying to get budget-cut plans
across the line, has called a no-confidence vote for September
8. He is expected to fail.
At the same time, the September Fed meeting will take place
against growing angst about central bank independence.
So, that's two already on the September market risks
check-list.
Stock markets near record highs, smack of complacency, and
bond markets - where plenty of risk is priced in - are unlikely
to breathe soon.
4/ BACK WITH A BANG
The value of global mergers and acquisitions has hit highs not
seen since the 2021 post-pandemic boom. Despite earlier market
turmoil and a reduced number of transactions, by the end of the
year, we could be near the $4 trillion in deals forecast by some
dealmakers last year.
Tariff-driven expansion, sector consolidation and cross-border
strategic alliances are some of the drivers. Keurig Dr Pepper's ( KDP )
$18 billion takeover of JDE Peets highlights
how companies may be navigating rising U.S. tariffs.
And the takeover of UK assets by largely U.S. bidders will
likely continue given an ongoing valuation gap between the two
regions. While some deals have taken longer to get done,
downward pressure on rates and a strengthening macro environment
will support M&A momentum, says BNP Paribas's UK head of
advisory Kirshlen Moodley.
5/ HIGH STAKES
Brazil's high stakes trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro
enters its final stretch on Tuesday, with the far-right leader
and seven of his closest aides accused of plotting a coup to
overturn the 2022 election result.
If found guilty, he could face over 40 years in jail. For
markets, the immediate issue is that it could further rile Trump
who has already imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods for what
he calls the "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro.
Some of Brazil's biggest exports, such as aircraft, energy
and orange juice, have so far avoided the tariffs, so the
concern is that Trump could turn his attention to them.
A parallel case at Brazil's Supreme Court is investigating
Bolsonaro and his son, congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, for trying
to pressure justices to acquit the former president.
That is crucial too as it could mean there is no Bolsonaro on
the ballot for next year's election and Trump's attacks seem to
have lifted current Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's
popularity rating.
(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Prinz Magtulis, Alun
John and Marc Jones, Editing by Barbara Lewis)